Six-Chart Sunday – Nobody Knows ‘Nuthin’ (Summer 2025)

6 Infographics + 1 Video (the late, great David Gergen)

A recurring 6CS theme is that “nobody knows nuthin’ about anything.” Reality keeps mugging the “experts,” fueling an ongoing “revolt of the public & crisis of authority” that drives populism, loss of trust in institutions and change elections.

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1. Investing. Experts: Aim for a diversified portfolio of stocks & bonds, growth & value, domestic & international, short-term & long-term. Reality: Gold has crushed the markets so far this century.

2. Education. Experts: You need a college degree, preferably in a STEM field and ideally relating to computers. Reality: Recent college graduates face higher unemployment than non-college grads right now, with computer engineers more than twice as likely to be unemployed as philosophy majors. (Elite overproduction anyone?)

3. Tariff revenue. Experts: “If you get to $100 billion to $200 billion [in tariff revenue], you’ll be pretty lucky.” (Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s). Reality: U.S. tariff income in 2025 is already north of $118B and “could grow to $300 billion by” year’s end. (Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent)

4. Race & politics. Experts: Demography is political destiny, non-white voters support Democrats (and always will), so ongoing diversification of America’s population will result in durable Democratic Party dominance. Reality: Non-white voters are increasing voting for GOP candidates, with President Trump showing historic strength.

5. Voters. Experts: New York City voters will never elect a virtually-unknown, historically-young, anti-Israel, anti-Wall Street, defund-the-police-espousing, Marx-quoting socialist over a far better-funded, better-known, more-widely-endorsed former NY governor & scion of a famous New York political family. Reality: Voters want change. Digitally-proficient anti-establishment disruptors keep upending traditional politicians. As Mark Halperin shrewdly observed: “Zohran Mamdani and Donald Trump are mirror images—of both substance and form. Both postmodern performers. Both political storytellers. Both underestimated until it was too late for a flummoxed establishment. And both, in their own peculiar idioms, tell the audience: You’re not just watching this. You’re part of it.”

6. Ignorance may be bliss but it usually makes for terrible policy. We ignore experts at our own peril. Vaccines prevent disease, climate change is real and those who live by conspiracy theories may die by them, literally or politically.

So what? Expertise is real. It matters. Everyone prefers an experienced surgeon, airline pilot, plumber or auto mechanic. Yet too often experts appear to lack humility, empathy or a “sense of responsibility for America” (Peggy Noonan, “When Establishments Fail”). Business leaders, politicians and academics face a rebuttable presumption of elitism that can only be overcome by persistence, humility, authenticity and showing up. All trust is local.

VIDEO

Legendary adviser to Presidents & Washington wise man David Gergen passed away this week. A true patriot and eternal optimist, he generously spend 45 fascinating minutes chatting with me in 2022 upon publishing “Hearts Touched with Fire.”