Six-Chart Sunday (#19): History Lessons
6 Infographics from the week + 1 video interview (political scientist Patrick Ruffini)
Upcoming live event this Wed. June 5th at 2pm ET: The 2024 Elections, with ABC News Political Director Rick Klein & Echelon Insights Co-Founder Kristen Soltis Anderson. Register here to join us:
Looking backward…
That 70’s Show: While 73% of Americans fear we’re on the wrong track today, we’ve faced crises of confidence before. Nothing divides 2024 America as deeply as the Vietnam War did from 1968-1974. The rates of inflation, violent crime & home mortgage rates are all lower today than they were in the 70’s, while race relations & campus politics were more fraught then. (More: homosexuality was deemed a “mental illness” by the medical establishment until 1973 with no right to marry; cancer death rates were higher, life expectancy lower; and energy efficiency & the gender pay gap were worse, if still not ideal).
But, But, But… We Had Trusted Referees: Of course everything was not better in the 1970’s (e.g. less federal debt, fewer school shootings & overdose deaths, lower rates of obesity, carbon emissions, etc.) One of the biggest differences: We had far higher trust in institutions back then. The most trusted person in America in 1970 was a journalist — Walter Cronkite — with 72% of Americans trusting mass media “a great deal / fair amount” back then vs just 32% today. That meant we considered policy issues from a shared set of facts. And mass media is hardly the only institution to lose public trust. We’ve likewise lost faith in Congress, banks, public schools, big business & organized religion, among others. (Gallup)
Periods of Disruption Lead to Eras of Reform: America previously faced a period of rising income inequality & falling social mobility, with intense culture wars over surging immigration, stagnant politics & accelerating new technologies disrupting how we work, live, play, learn & parent… in the Gilded Age. Over decades, public demands for reform improved outcomes, increasing inclusivity & public trust in the system. (“Navigating the New Gilded Age”)
Looking forward…
Buckle Up for a Wild Ride. History tells us there will be a lot more twists & turns over the next 157 days of the 2024 campaign. (And probably well past Nov. 6).
History Says to Bet on Change: Partisan Control of the U.S. House, Senate and/or White House has changed in every election since 2012. The average duration of control of the House or Senate by a party in the 21st century is less than half as long as in the 20th. With narrow margins and tight races, the odds of 2025’s alignment looking different than today’s are high.
Public Opinion Usually Shifts Against the Party in Power… and May Again. As Nate Silver observed, “public opinion is often thermostatic — meaning that it moves in the opposite direction of whomever is in power.” That suggests the 2024 election will impact more than policy… it may also predict who’s on offense in the culture wars & where business leaders can expect pressure in 2025-28.
VIDEO
Political scientist Patrick Ruffini’s new book sees a political realignment in which the GOP becomes a multi-racial working class party.
*** This week’s Six-Charts Sunday drew heavily on our new quarterly slide deck. Sharing always encouraged! And you can find the old ones here***
Populism can only occur in a democracy. It grows when people believe their government in unable, too corrupt, or unwilling to address the issues they care about. It is highly susceptible to demagoguery, which makes it dangerous. The cure for populism is good government. Sounds too simple, but that is how the U.S. escaped the serious populism of the 1890s. If government responds to their people, populism goes away.
This is always such a great series. Keep it up!