Six-Chart Sunday – 2028
6 Infographics + 1 Video (greatest movie Dad ever?) // Upcoming book talk Wednesday 6/18: “Original Sin” with Alex Thompson
I’m surprised how often I get asked about the 2028 Presidential elections, given the last election was just 222 days ago while the next one is still 1,241 days away. But since both parties expect competitive open primaries with an unusually wide range of possibilities given ongoing voter realignment, thinking about 2028 now can help us better understand and anticipate trends today.
Democrats’ 2028 choice: 1972 or 1992? After losing with the VP in 1968, Democrats in 1972 picked progressive favorite George McGovern and got crushed… Nixon won 520 electoral college votes and over 60% of the popular vote. By contrast, after losing 3 in a row in 1988, Democrats in 1992 opted for moderate Bill Clinton, pivoting to the middle and winning the popular vote in 7 of the next 8 Presidential elections.
Republicans’ decision: How Trumpy? President Trump cannot and will not seek a third term. Some of those running to succeed him will promise “four more years” of similar governance, much as George HW Bush ran to continue Reagan’s policies. Others will run on mostly retaining Trumpian direction but with some changes in policy (e.g. trade) and style (aka Trump Lite). A third cadre could run to “move beyond” the disruptive Trump years, especially if the President’s approval rates are sagging and/or the MAGA media ecosystem has weakened.
It’s likely “The Economy, Stupid,” once again. If we’re lucky enough to avoid war or disaster, the 2028 election will probably turn on the state of the economy: consumer confidence, employment, inflation and wage growth. Economic factors impact both the general election and the primary campaigns, with economic anxiety begetting more populism.
Outsiders Beat Insiders. Around the world, a growing share of voters believe the system is “rigged” by elite insiders & institutions… thus incumbent parties keep losing ground to populist insurgents. In the U.S. we saw a profound pivot in the elections since Vietnam & Watergate... In the 12 prior elections, experience in Washington was seen as valuable and candidates with more almost always won. In the 15 elections since, voters have held time in Washington against candidates.
Bet on change. Americans want change. But they’re not getting it. They feel vulnerable in this age of disruption and don’t trust existing institutions. So they keep voting to throw the bums out, inviting new bums to take their place. 11 of the 13 U.S. elections this century have ousted the party running the House, Senate and/or White House, including the last six in a row.
Yes, it’s too soon to know what’s coming. The three most dominant politicians of the past 35 years were Bill Clinton, Barack Obama & Donald Trump… NONE of them were seen as serious contenders at this point in the cycle (three years out). So take 2025 polls with a large shaker of salt (adding lime & tequila): the next President is probably not on there!
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VIDEO
Happy Father’s Day to all! There are many great dads in the movies, but few willing to go to greater lengths for their sons than Marlin the clown fish. “Your dad's been fighting the entire ocean looking for you…. He's traveled hundreds of miles. He's been battling sharks and jellyfish.”
Great analysis (as usual). Though it makes my head hurt to think of the next presidential election already. As you point out, we have had multiple change elections in a row - and Republicans best start considering what that means for them in the mid-terms. If they do not deliver on something, the voters are perfectly happy to give the Democrats another chance (though I don't think they know what they would do other than to impeach Trump again).
Good chart on why The Economy is top of mind for people in elections. Seems to favor people who maybe spent their career in business or private sector then?