I do, however, have a comment on "experts". I don't think it's analogous to put disciplines like economists, political scientists, public health officials in the same category as pilots, plumbers, and auto mechanics. The latter are dealing with the physical world, which is reality and has known laws, while the former are using models of the world, which are often faulty, include unknown factors, and are values-driven.
This is why we have 100 economists saying Milei's policies are bad only to be shown they're totally wrong and health care officials putting tyrannical covid policies in place and allowing gender surgery on minors.
These are two different groups and they're doing two very different things.
Disappointing to see the Billion Dollar Disaster chart thrown out without any context. Roger Pielke’s work clearly shows that the increase is due to increased development in vulnerable areas, with the classic example being South Beach (look at photos from 100 years ago vs today; Miami is regularly slammed by hurricanes, but now there is billions of dollars of prime real estate in the way)
Great post as usual.
I do, however, have a comment on "experts". I don't think it's analogous to put disciplines like economists, political scientists, public health officials in the same category as pilots, plumbers, and auto mechanics. The latter are dealing with the physical world, which is reality and has known laws, while the former are using models of the world, which are often faulty, include unknown factors, and are values-driven.
This is why we have 100 economists saying Milei's policies are bad only to be shown they're totally wrong and health care officials putting tyrannical covid policies in place and allowing gender surgery on minors.
These are two different groups and they're doing two very different things.
"...students study models now instead of studying nature." Paraphrasing Erwin Chargaff. More relevant today than when he wrote it in the 70s.
Disappointing to see the Billion Dollar Disaster chart thrown out without any context. Roger Pielke’s work clearly shows that the increase is due to increased development in vulnerable areas, with the classic example being South Beach (look at photos from 100 years ago vs today; Miami is regularly slammed by hurricanes, but now there is billions of dollars of prime real estate in the way)
This was a brilliant read! Thank you for this.
You should read Roger Pelkie Jr re Billion Dollar Disasters.
B. Nicely done tribute to David G. D. Kotok