Six-Chart Sunday (#40) – The Five Questions
6 Infographics from the week + 1 Video (ret. General David Petraeus)
With nine days to go, polling basically tied in swing states & a photo-finish likely, we believe the outcome will depend on Five Key Questions:
Who is seen as the “change” candidate?
Who’s more trusted on the economy?
Will abortion or immigration voters surge?
Who is executing better (turnout, persuasion, surrogates & influencers)?
Is the polling wrong again or right this time?
Who is the Change Candidate in 2024? As we wrote in August, “change is the new normal”… voters around the world are voting-out incumbents. But with a sitting Vice President (who says she wouldn’t have done anything different than President Biden over the past four years) facing a former President (calling for four more years like the four years before the last four years), determining who is the “change” candidate in 2024 is more complicated this time.
Who’s More Trusted on the Economy? Gallup data shows “the party rated as better at handling the most important problem has won” every presidential election since 1952 (n.b. question not asked in 2000 and was tied in 1980). The economy / cost of living is consistently rated the top issue to most voters in 2024 across almost every poll, and Trump is consistently more trusted on the issue. As we wrote in September, ”the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is in throw-the-bums-out territory.”
Will abortion or immigration single-issue voters surge? While “the economy” polls as “the most important issue,” NBC’s pollsters asked a different question: “Do you consider any one issue so important that you would vote for or against a candidate solely on that basis?" Top two answers?: “Abortion” (22%) & “immigration / border security” (19%). Either may prove a “silver bullet” deciding the outcome.
Who executes better (turnout & persuasion)? Great candidates inspire. Great campaigns get out the vote. Turnout and persuasion depend on money, voter registration, volunteers and advertising. Harris’ unprecedented fundraising success enabled a massive advertising & ground game advantage. But the GOP did better registering new voters during the Biden years. And while the Trump campaign reportedly outsourced much of its ground game to outside groups, the GOP’s 2024 early voting efforts are well-ahead of their 2020 pace.
Who executes better, part 2 (surrogates & influencers)? Candidates appear with celebrities to engage marginal voters, since celebrities are more popular & have greater reach (e.g. Elon Musk has 202M Twitter followers, Taylor Swift has 283M on Instagram). Former President Trump is clearly aiming to max turnout among young men and disaffected Democrats by appearing with Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, RFK Jr. & Tulsi Gabbard. VP Harris is hoping to rally women and anti-Trump Republicans by appearing with Beyonce, Liz Cheney & appealing to Swifties.
(Note: This is a parody. Taylor Swift is far more powerful than Pepper Potts & Elon Musk has never been to the Mos Eisley cantina, though he hopes to go soon).
Is the polling wrong again or right this time? Polling is an inexact science (though still better than a Ouija Board). Political polls in 2020 & 2016 consistently under-estimated support for President Trump, especially in the “Rust Belt” swing states of MI, WI & PA. Have they solved the challenges this time, over-corrected (as in 2022) or once again failed to measure a mighty MAGA army? (NYTimes)
(Upcoming event: Join us Monday 4pm ET for a live election presentation from / discussion with legendary pollster Bill McInturff. Register here, though we only have Zoom room for 500).
VIDEO
Retired four-star General David Petraeus is an American hero who served 37 years in the U.S. Army, famously leading the “surge” in Iraq among other successful assignments including Director of the CIA. We chatted about rising geopolitical risks 11 months before Putin invaded Ukraine.
THANKS FOR READING & SHARING WITH FRIENDS!! Dreaming-up & creating these weekly reports over the past 40 weeks has been fun & rewarding, especially when old friends reply to say ‘hello,’ or new friends sign-up & reach out with ideas & perspectives.
Loved the Gen Petraeus conversation even though its a bit dated - thanks Bruce.