Six-Chart Sunday (#29) – Who's the Change Candidate in 2024?
6 Infographics from the week + 1 Video (Mayo Clinic CEO Gianrico Farrugia)
Americans keep voting for change: 10 of the 12 federal elections this century. It’s not unique to the U.S. – voters around the world are dumping incumbent parties in 2024. This fits an electorate where ¾ of voters think we’re on the wrong track and only 22% trust the government to do what is right “just about always” / “most of the time.” Federal government experience went from a resume virtue to a liability, with voters punishing the candidate with more Washington service in 11 of the past 14 elections. The key question for 2024: Who is the “Change” candidate?
Change is the New Normal: 10 of the 12 U.S. federal elections this century resulted in a change in the party controlling the House, Senate and/or White House.
Voters Around the World Are Choosing Change: More citizens in more countries are voting in 2024 than any prior year, and “so far a tsunami of change is sweeping ballot boxes worldwide.” (Time Magazine)
3/4 of Americans Think We’re on the Wrong Track: For each of the past 21 years, American voters have told NBC News pollsters that the nation is “on the wrong track,” and 2023-2024 sees the highest level of “wrong track” sentiment since the end of the Cold War.
U.S. Voters Lost Confidence in Our Government: As of April 2024, only 22% of Americans trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” or “most of the time.” While this is a modest improvement over last year’s 16% (which was among the lowest measures in nearly seven decades of polling), it’s a far cry from the 1950’s & 1960’s, when more than 60% Americans trusted Washington to do what’s right most of the time. (Pew)
Voters Punish Candidates for Washington Resumes: For decades, voters rewarded federal government experience… from 1920 through 1964, the candidate with more (or equal) years of service in Washington won 11/12 Presidential contests. But the sense of disorder in the late 1960’s / early 1970’s — with rising crime, political assassinations, stagnation in Vietnam, stagflation in the U.S. economy, Watergate — led many to mistrust “Washington” and thereafter punish federal experience. The more “Washington” candidate has lost 11 of the most recent 14 Presidential elections.
So Who Is the “Change” Candidate in 2024? Both Vice President Harris and former President Trump seek to position themselves as the change candidate this election. Harris benefits as the “new” face ending months of voter dismay at a Biden-Trump rematch, but she also represents four more years for the party in power / current direction. Trump offers explicit policy change, but less a “new” direction than “back” to the previous agenda he’s espoused for the past nine years.
VIDEO
Considered by many to be the World’s Best Hospital, the Mayo Clinic is led by Dr. Gianrico Farrugia, a visionary & inspirational leader. We discussed Mayo’s great work and the future of healthcare amidst the pandemic in 2021:
The American people have, according to these surveys, been more than happy to "throw the bums out." The problem is the politicians haven't figured out how not to be bums. You would think that with one change election after another, someone would figure out what stable leadership looks like. Someone would devise a plan to fix something - the debt, the border, poverty, crime. etc. - and stick to it.
We get populism when the people believe the government is too incompetent, corrupt, or indifferent to deal with their problems. In and of itself, it's a symptom of bad government. The problem is that populism is all too easily hijacked by demagoguery. Pandering to the extremes is breaking this country. The people know it. Our political leaders need to figure out a way to get elected without appealing to the most extreme elements of our society.
The eyeball test of your charts #3 and #4 tell me confidence has declined in the internet age regardless of affiliation.