Six-Chart Sunday (#33) – Photo Finish Brewing
6 Infographics from the week + 1 Video (former IBM CEO Ginni Rometty)
We’re 58 days from Election Day. Early voting started this weekend in some states such as North Carolina. The first (and possibly only) debate between Trump & Harris is set for this Tuesday night (9pm ET), and as we learned, debates can make a big difference! Polls suggest we’re racing towards a photo finish, with about 1 in 10 voters saying they still might change their mind or are undecided. Buckle up.
Swing State Polling Shows a Dead Heat: All 7 swing states are within the margin of error, 5 of 7 within 1 point or less, according to the latest Real Clear Politics average of public polls.
But Can We Trust Polling? CNN’s Harry Enten points out that MI/PA/WI polling under-estimated Trump by 9 points in 2016 and 5 points in 2020, one reason
BidenHarris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon called Harris the “underdog” despite a narrow lead in national polls. Political scientist Patrick Ruffini recently explored “How Will We Know if the Polls are Wrong Again,” a great read & Substack).
It’s Still / Always the Economy, Stupid: Swing voters are most focused on economic / pocketbook issues. (Excellent NYT David Leonhardt look this week at “Who the Swing Voters Are”).
Whom Voters Prefer, By Issue: A CNN poll of battleground voters sees a divided field on issues, with Trump leading on economic & safety questions, and Harris leading on abortion & democracy. We continue to believe the most critical question this election is “Who is seen as the Change Candidate for 2024?”
“Deficit Don”: Bloomberg estimates the cost of proposed Trump/Vance tax cuts at $10.5 trillion over a decade. “Even if Congress were to eliminate every dollar of non-defense discretionary spending — projected to be $9.8 trillion over the next 10 years — it still wouldn’t offset the estimated expense of the wide-ranging tax cuts Trump and Vance have floated in recent weeks.” (Bloomberg)
“Kama Kameleon”: Axios notes that “with 60 days left in the race, and at the very moment she's presenting a different ideology than four years ago, Vice President Kamala Harris isn't getting subjected to the media scrutiny typical for a presidential nominee.” Axios points to nine unexplained apparent policy shifts:
VIDEO
Former IBM Chairman & CEO Ginni Rometty discusses leading change with grit, heart & positivity.
UPCOMING — THIS THURSDAY (4pm ET) — Register here to join me & the great Tevi Troy as we discuss “epic clashes between” CEOs and Presidents.
