Six-Chart Sunday – Echoes
6 Infographics + 1 Video (Billy Joel)
Meet the new Roaring 20’s. Same as the old Roaring 20’s. Immigration backlash, retreat from globalization, technological transformation, conservative counter-revolution to “return to normalcy”… History may not repeat but the parallels are profound.
Conservative Counterrevolution. 1920’s: Exhausted after a decade of fighting (over social justice, pandemic (mis)management, global imperialism) and distrustful of institutions, voters opted for less activist government, fewer foreign entanglements, and a “return to normalcy.” 2020’s: Exhausted after a decade of fighting (over social justice, pandemic (mis)management & “forever wars”) and distrustful of institutions, voters opt for less activist government, fewer foreign entanglements, and a “return to normalcy.”
Retreat from Globalization. 1920’s: World War + global pandemic brought a rise in nationalism & protectionism, slowing/reversing globalization trend of prior 3 decades. 2020’s: Great Financial Crisis + global pandemic have triggered an increase in nationalism & protectionism, slowing/reversing globalization trend of prior 3 decades.
Immigration Backlash. 1920’s: Huge immigration wave of the late 1800s-early 1900s sparked a political backlash, leading to new laws (1921, 1924) that tightly restricted immigration. 2020’s: Huge immigration wave in the 2000’s-2010’s powered a political backlash against lax southern border controls, leading to new immigration restrictions & aggressive deportation efforts.
Technological Transformation. 1920’s: Rapid adoption of transformational new technologies (electricity, radio, cars, home appliances) disrupted how Americans worked, lived, played, learned & parented. 2020’s: Rapid adoption of transformational new technologies (smart phones, 5G & edge computing, AI) is disrupting how Americans work, live, play, learn & parent.
Revolution in Military Affairs. 1920’s: Emerging technologies (aviation, fast tanks, radio communications, aircraft carriers) were transforming war fighting and strategic planning for a new age of mechanized warfare. 2020’s: Emerging technologies (drones, space-systems, cyber weapons, AI) are transforming war fighting and strategic planning for a new age of digitized warfare.
Asset Bubbles Fuel Rising Disparities. 1920’s: Irrational exuberance about the promise of new innovations & investments powered a post-pandemic decade with exploding wealth, large tax cuts and a speculation bubble that juiced growth and grew income gaps. 2020’s: Irrational exuberance about the economic promise of new innovations & investments are powering a post-pandemic decade explosion of wealth, with tax cuts, fiscal stimulus (and speculation bubbles?) juicing growth and growing income gaps.
Coda: Yes, there are also many differences. Leaders reduced the national debt in the 1920s. Social safety nets are far more robust today, civil liberties much more deeply entrenched. The Trump agenda seems more transformational than Harding’s “return to normalcy”; Silent Cal he is not. Global integration is higher today, while the risks of total war are better understood (maybe?).
I’ve previously published on The New Gilded Age (Oct. 2017) & The Roaring 2020s (Apr. 2019), and I remain convinced we have much to learn from this past period. Hopefully real historians can delve deeper into the parallels and their significance before they all lose their jobs to AI.
VIDEO
The new Billy Joel documentary (“And So It Goes”) on HBO is fantastic. Highly recommended! This week’s Substack was partially inspired by Joel’s great Cold War-history-set-to-upbeat-music hit, “We Didn’t Start the Fire,” so here it is:
Great connections. History may not rhyme, but it does tend to develop in cycles. Let's hope the end of this period is different (Great Depression and the rise of Nazi Fascism).
What followed the “Roaring 20’s”?