Great connections. History may not rhyme, but it does tend to develop in cycles. Let's hope the end of this period is different (Great Depression and the rise of Nazi Fascism).
Interesting coincidences, but I'm looking at the money supply. The Fed incompetently shrank the money supply by 30 percent during the late '20s, and Herbert Hoover and Congress exacerbated the effects of the Great Depression with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. If and when we have another global financial crisis, it will be caused and fueled by rising levels of public debt.
Bruce - I get tons of newletters / blogs / posts, etc., but I always leave yours for when I have a few minutes to chew on it... like a saved dessert. Thank you.
One of your most interesting and insightful pieces. Thanks. The historians do need to get on this. The roaring 20s did not end well. And if people were smart enough to see what the stock market is really doing without the Magnificent 7 they would be more concerned. The revision to the jobs report was the first clear warning sign. Inflation is going to continue to rise. Heavy sigh.
The income that states and the Feds receive from capital gains from equity markets by the top 10% is significant. This every narrowing part of our population fuels our service economy. The policy makers we elect have us all trapped in a cycle where equity markets have to keep going up. “Juicing” of the economy has to continue for them to keep their jobs and the top 10% to get richer. It will all work out.. until it quickly does not.
Bruce - couldn’t you also make the case this feels much more like the ‘30s? The rumblings of global war? Active hot wars? The Father Coughlin socialist Right and Huey Long socialist Left? The authoritarian political landscape? The collapse of the Weimar center?
True! Though the Great Depression exerting an overwhelming influence on everything in the 1930's and thankfully that's not true today (fingers-crossed emoji)
Love your excellent work Bruce. I am heavy devotee of Howe/Turchin/Dalio cycle theories. They are simply too uncanny to explain away as historical randomness. Though our modern intellectuals chafe at the notion human beings act predictably or to a set group of moods (vibes) that connect to our deep human natures around grit, resilience (positive) and sloth, entitlement (negative). Progressive historians and social theorists can’t bear the thought that humanity isn’t socially engineered out of its base nature. Or that metaphysical hokum might explain how generations respond to recurring stimulations vs their technocratic tinkering to forever fine tune the human spirit. As long as our academics run intellectual pursuit and we stop peering into human nature as it is (vs what we wish it were), we’ll keep blundering into these rhyming eras - making the same mistakes and responses over and over.
Great connections. History may not rhyme, but it does tend to develop in cycles. Let's hope the end of this period is different (Great Depression and the rise of Nazi Fascism).
Indeed!
What followed the “Roaring 20’s”?
Interesting coincidences, but I'm looking at the money supply. The Fed incompetently shrank the money supply by 30 percent during the late '20s, and Herbert Hoover and Congress exacerbated the effects of the Great Depression with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. If and when we have another global financial crisis, it will be caused and fueled by rising levels of public debt.
Previous Fourth Turning's have resulted in two disparate outcomes. Which one will we choose?
Bruce - I get tons of newletters / blogs / posts, etc., but I always leave yours for when I have a few minutes to chew on it... like a saved dessert. Thank you.
One of your most interesting and insightful pieces. Thanks. The historians do need to get on this. The roaring 20s did not end well. And if people were smart enough to see what the stock market is really doing without the Magnificent 7 they would be more concerned. The revision to the jobs report was the first clear warning sign. Inflation is going to continue to rise. Heavy sigh.
The income that states and the Feds receive from capital gains from equity markets by the top 10% is significant. This every narrowing part of our population fuels our service economy. The policy makers we elect have us all trapped in a cycle where equity markets have to keep going up. “Juicing” of the economy has to continue for them to keep their jobs and the top 10% to get richer. It will all work out.. until it quickly does not.
Bruce - couldn’t you also make the case this feels much more like the ‘30s? The rumblings of global war? Active hot wars? The Father Coughlin socialist Right and Huey Long socialist Left? The authoritarian political landscape? The collapse of the Weimar center?
True! Though the Great Depression exerting an overwhelming influence on everything in the 1930's and thankfully that's not true today (fingers-crossed emoji)
Love your excellent work Bruce. I am heavy devotee of Howe/Turchin/Dalio cycle theories. They are simply too uncanny to explain away as historical randomness. Though our modern intellectuals chafe at the notion human beings act predictably or to a set group of moods (vibes) that connect to our deep human natures around grit, resilience (positive) and sloth, entitlement (negative). Progressive historians and social theorists can’t bear the thought that humanity isn’t socially engineered out of its base nature. Or that metaphysical hokum might explain how generations respond to recurring stimulations vs their technocratic tinkering to forever fine tune the human spirit. As long as our academics run intellectual pursuit and we stop peering into human nature as it is (vs what we wish it were), we’ll keep blundering into these rhyming eras - making the same mistakes and responses over and over.
So grate I read it super fast to be honest I didn't even read it
Another parallel: corruption. Though not sure if these days Teapot Dome would be a scandal.
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