I think American spirit is a special attribute and an unquantifiable wild card - I believe in hope and spirit over intellectualization of current what ifs and all other viewpoints - humanity will find a way to survive and earth will always find a way
Very interesting, Neil Howe, is on Substack. I am aware of and appreciate the works of Ray Dalio, and as someone who lives In and knowledgeable about a former global empire, I largely believe that his prediction on the decline of the US hegemony and the rise of China is correct. others I’ll look into. Finally, the OP might want to look into Michael R Drew and Roy H Williams.
I am a student of cycles and am familiar with most of these. I long employed combination of the Strauss and Howe generational cycle and the economic long cycle (Kondratiev).
I proposed this model a 2002 book, made a number of specific predictions to test its validity and waited to see what would happen. I ended up with 3 hits and 3 misses, not better than coin flips and rejected the hypothesis that there was prediction power to this modle.
Since then I have made use of Peter Turchin's secular cycle concept and his fifty-year cycle of radicalization generated by a social contagion process. This second cycle corresponds to Samuel Huntington's creedal passion period when on notes that he missed on and got some of the timing off a bit. He was working from a qualitative pov. Turchin's and my approaches are empirical with mathematical models describing the dynamics. I also make extensive use of cultural evolution mechanisms in explaining the cycles I use now.
The period cycles of sociopolitical turmoil were called creedal passion periods (CPP) by Huntington are spaced at fifty-year intervals, not sixty as Huntington proposed. The current CPP began around 2013, FIFTY not sixty years after the 1963-78 "New Consciousness" CPP.
One of the CPPs was obscured by the Civil War and so was missed by Huntington. Also, the timing he gave for the Progressive Era CPP was early. Violence peaked in the years around 1920, 80-90 years after 1830's peak of the 2nd Great Awakening/Jacksonian CPP (leaving room for TWO cycles). In between is a CPP that peaked around 1870, which was overshadowed by the Civil War (which is due to Peter Turchin's secular cycle).
Right now, we are finishing the Great Awokening CPP, which takes its name from the Great Awakening CPP that peaked around the 1730's. The social contagion model forecasts the end for the current CPP in two years. We are also on the cusp between the third (Crisis) phase and the fourth (Resolution) phase of the secular cycle. This is the time when civil war is likely, though other things like an economic crash can resolve the crisis too. It is not a pleasant time. :(
Neoliberalism as our way of governing, regardless of who's in the White House, should have ended when it self-imploded with the 2008 financial crisis. Instead, we thought we could keep doing the same thing, ignoring the writing on the wall. I fear we are in too deep now. We are facing the consequences, and no one has been held responsible.
Thanks Bruce - loved the wide angle perspective here + superb interview with Neil Howe. You've given me plenty to think about as I process what's going on. Its a coincidence that I was trying to make sense of this moment but from fables & musicals at the same time: https://rajeshachanta.substack.com/p/don-quixote-and-his-dreamcoat
I recently finished "The Fourth Turning is Here". It is quite dense and so full of lists that it is hard to keep the story straight sometimes. It does seem very descriptive, accurately describing cycles mostly in Anglo-American history. Like all theories though, the prescriptive or predictive part is harder to understand.
History, to me seems so contingent. So full of "what ifs...". What if Kennedy hadn't been shot, what if trump had been, what if. Having said this, the theory is thought provoking and interesting at least. It combines social movements with changes in consciousness. Combines the inner and outer realms. This approach has also been taken by Ken Wilber's Integral Theory, and to a lesser extent by Peter Zeihan, "The End of the World is Just the Beginning."
So what's a mother to do. For me, a 68 year old retired Boomer, I have taken a break from America. I'm trying to catch up on subjects that I failed miserably at in school, and start Summer school in French in July. I thought moving to France would be enough to shield me from the crazy and corruption of rump 2, but sadly, I haven't been able to look away. But the fight has to be joined. I hope Gen X and the Millennials are up to it
There is a pattern in history that should not be ignored. But as you point out, there are many alarm bells ringing. At least those who read your weekly column will have no reason to be surprised when the storm hits.
Bruce:
Your posts usually give me something to think about. However today's will have me cogitating for the next several weeks. Outstanding!
Mike
Very important post
I think American spirit is a special attribute and an unquantifiable wild card - I believe in hope and spirit over intellectualization of current what ifs and all other viewpoints - humanity will find a way to survive and earth will always find a way
Very interesting, Neil Howe, is on Substack. I am aware of and appreciate the works of Ray Dalio, and as someone who lives In and knowledgeable about a former global empire, I largely believe that his prediction on the decline of the US hegemony and the rise of China is correct. others I’ll look into. Finally, the OP might want to look into Michael R Drew and Roy H Williams.
Well worth a read!
Aaaaaaaaaakkkk egaaaaaadds please stop! I mean… great post I’m sure. The next time I’d see social media telling me this post explains the pattern they
Thank you very much.
I am a student of cycles and am familiar with most of these. I long employed combination of the Strauss and Howe generational cycle and the economic long cycle (Kondratiev).
https://www.amazon.com/Kondratiev-Cycle-generational-interpretation/dp/0595217117
I proposed this model a 2002 book, made a number of specific predictions to test its validity and waited to see what would happen. I ended up with 3 hits and 3 misses, not better than coin flips and rejected the hypothesis that there was prediction power to this modle.
Since then I have made use of Peter Turchin's secular cycle concept and his fifty-year cycle of radicalization generated by a social contagion process. This second cycle corresponds to Samuel Huntington's creedal passion period when on notes that he missed on and got some of the timing off a bit. He was working from a qualitative pov. Turchin's and my approaches are empirical with mathematical models describing the dynamics. I also make extensive use of cultural evolution mechanisms in explaining the cycles I use now.
The period cycles of sociopolitical turmoil were called creedal passion periods (CPP) by Huntington are spaced at fifty-year intervals, not sixty as Huntington proposed. The current CPP began around 2013, FIFTY not sixty years after the 1963-78 "New Consciousness" CPP.
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/cycles-of-radicalization
One of the CPPs was obscured by the Civil War and so was missed by Huntington. Also, the timing he gave for the Progressive Era CPP was early. Violence peaked in the years around 1920, 80-90 years after 1830's peak of the 2nd Great Awakening/Jacksonian CPP (leaving room for TWO cycles). In between is a CPP that peaked around 1870, which was overshadowed by the Civil War (which is due to Peter Turchin's secular cycle).
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/the-american-secular-cycles
Right now, we are finishing the Great Awokening CPP, which takes its name from the Great Awakening CPP that peaked around the 1730's. The social contagion model forecasts the end for the current CPP in two years. We are also on the cusp between the third (Crisis) phase and the fourth (Resolution) phase of the secular cycle. This is the time when civil war is likely, though other things like an economic crash can resolve the crisis too. It is not a pleasant time. :(
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/the-current-crisis-era
Neoliberalism as our way of governing, regardless of who's in the White House, should have ended when it self-imploded with the 2008 financial crisis. Instead, we thought we could keep doing the same thing, ignoring the writing on the wall. I fear we are in too deep now. We are facing the consequences, and no one has been held responsible.
Thanks Bruce - loved the wide angle perspective here + superb interview with Neil Howe. You've given me plenty to think about as I process what's going on. Its a coincidence that I was trying to make sense of this moment but from fables & musicals at the same time: https://rajeshachanta.substack.com/p/don-quixote-and-his-dreamcoat
I recently finished "The Fourth Turning is Here". It is quite dense and so full of lists that it is hard to keep the story straight sometimes. It does seem very descriptive, accurately describing cycles mostly in Anglo-American history. Like all theories though, the prescriptive or predictive part is harder to understand.
History, to me seems so contingent. So full of "what ifs...". What if Kennedy hadn't been shot, what if trump had been, what if. Having said this, the theory is thought provoking and interesting at least. It combines social movements with changes in consciousness. Combines the inner and outer realms. This approach has also been taken by Ken Wilber's Integral Theory, and to a lesser extent by Peter Zeihan, "The End of the World is Just the Beginning."
So what's a mother to do. For me, a 68 year old retired Boomer, I have taken a break from America. I'm trying to catch up on subjects that I failed miserably at in school, and start Summer school in French in July. I thought moving to France would be enough to shield me from the crazy and corruption of rump 2, but sadly, I haven't been able to look away. But the fight has to be joined. I hope Gen X and the Millennials are up to it
There is a pattern in history that should not be ignored. But as you point out, there are many alarm bells ringing. At least those who read your weekly column will have no reason to be surprised when the storm hits.