Six-Chart Sunday (#53) – Activism Ahead?

6 Infographics + 1 Video (Alec Ross on the Raging 2020’s)

Politics are “thermostatic”… public opinion usually turns against the party in power, with activists pressuring leaders (in business, the media, institutions) to speak out on perceived social, cultural and political affronts. We saw this under Presidents Bush, Obama, Trump 1.0 & Biden. Will such pressures return in Trump 2.0? And how should business and community leaders navigate such fraught waters?

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1. Politics are Thermostatic. Pressure usually comes from activists on the side that is not in power. The George W. Bush Administration saw the rise of the “Bernie Left”… first anti-war, then anti-Wall Street. That helped elect Barack Obama, whose policies catalyzed the Tea Party at the beginning and MAGA movement by the end… paving the way for Trump 1.0, where the energy returned to the left. Rinse & repeat.

2. Trump 1.0 & Peak Activism. Starting with the “Women’s March,” continuing with opposition to various immigration actions and expanding after Charlottesville, pressure on businesses to speak out crescendo’ed in 2020 following the murder of George Floyd and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

3. The Biden Backlash. Predictably, the Biden Presidency engendered a growing backlash on the right, with conservative activists highlighting businesses’ inconsistencies, growing public backlash against political correctness and social issues becoming harder to navigate (e.g. Abortion vs Floyd murder; Middle East vs Ukraine). Public enthusiasm for brands’ social activism waned and U.S. executives cut back on public discussions of DEI & ESG.

4. Will Activist Pressure Return Under Trump 2.0? Trump returns to the White House with (a) Democrats in disarray, (b) a powerful MAGA echo chamber eager to fight & (c) and no obvious leadership for a new #resistance, with media, academia, Hollywood and many NGOs discredited by their own missteps and VP Harris’ defeat. Business just wants to do business & avoid antagonizing employees or customers on either side of a 50/50 nation. Yet thermostatic politics suggests we might expect the winds to change once again. Trump Administration initiatives across a host of issues, and/or its responses to external events, may revive energy on the left and renew pressure to “speak out.”

5. States Increasingly Battle Washington, Further Squeezing Business. Regardless of whether activist pressure returns, #resistance will come from blue states. U.S. states are increasingly all red or all blue… 38 of 50 have complete one party control in 2025. Ambitious governors and attorney generals fight Washington whenever their party does not hold the White House via competing policy initiatives or lawsuits, often pressuring businesses to “take a side” and/or develop different products / services for red America vs blue America.

6. How Should Business & Institutional Leaders Respond? Smart organizations have learned lessons from the past decade and will approach stakeholder engagement more strategically, selectively & preemptively. I offered more robust advice on engagement here, summarized in a recent presentation thusly:

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VIDEO

A century ago the “roaring 1920’s” followed a global pandemic with an American President in severe cognitive decline… the decade featured a severe U.S. backlash against immigration, close alignment between business titans and the governing class and a global turn towards tariffs & protectionism. Ahem. Professor Alec Ross & I discussed his book on its 100 year echo — the “Raging 2020’s” — shortly after it came out.