Six-Chart Sunday (#51) – The 119th
6 Infographics from the week + 1 Video (Mark Halperin on "Trump 2.0 & the Policy & Political Battles Ahead")
For the 119th time since the ratification of the U.S. Constitution, the duly-elected representatives of the world’s longest-running democracy began a new Congressional term. Here are six things to know about the 119th Congress.
The 119th Congress Will Be Very Active. Crises and deadlines spur action, and one-party control of Congress & White House is generally more productive. So what? The Trump Administration has huge plans, action-forcing deadlines & GOP control of Congress… Washington is biased towards action in 2025.
The 119th House of Representatives is Very Closely Divided. After winning 220 of the 435 seats last November, the GOP’s net +5 margin is the smallest House majority in 96 years. It gets even tighter at the start. So what? Marshaling unanimity among a fractious House Conference is President-elect Trump’s biggest challenge for tax reform & his other legislative priorities.
The 119th Senate Has the Fewest Split Delegations in Over a Century (possibly ever). 47 states elected either 2 Republican Senators or 2 Democrats… only 3 states have one from each party. So what? The Senate filibuster forces bipartisan compromise, but that’s even harder without divided delegations creating more frequent same-state collaborators.
Modern Congresses Have Been Passing Fewer Laws But More Pages of Legislation. While the 118th Congress witnessed an epic drop-off in both the number of bills passed and pages of legislation, recent Congresses have been bundling bills together into larger packages. So what? The notion that “Congress never gets anything done” is wrong and risky for those who fail to engage.
Many New Members & Leaders. Half of the House’s 20 standing committees will have a new Chairman or ranking member, while 81% of the Senate’s standing committees will (13 / 16). (Fun fact: In the early 20th century, the House had 59 standing committees!) So what? New leaders and new members bring new agendas & perspectives, reshaping the public policy landscape and driving the discussion.
Not Your Father’s House GOP. Fully 68% of the House Republican Conference arrived with or after Donald Trump in 2017 (150 of 220 Members), 45% of the Senate GOP. So what? It’s Trump’s Party. House unanimity seems incredibly challenging on divisive debt ceiling, tax and spending questions, but don’t under-estimate the President-elect’s sway.
Upcoming Live Event: This Thursday 1/16 at 4pm ET… Geopolitical analyst Hal Brands will discuss the challenges of 2025 as explored in his new book “The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars & the Making of the Modern World.” (Here’s a taste). To join us register HERE.
VIDEO
Few political analysts bring more campaign experience, insider connections or novel analysis to today’s highly-disruptive politics than Mark Halperin. This week I asked him 20 questions on the politics of 2025: where we are and where we’re heading.
You are right, Bill. I reversed my colors in the initially-published chart. Just fixed in the online version. Good catch... thanks!
I was concerned that the last chart was incorrect but it appears it’s already been caught