Six-Chart Sunday (#38) – The Triple Flip

6 Infographics from the week + 1 Video (former United Airlines CEO Oscar Munoz)

With 23 days remaining, betting markets currently predict a “Triple-Flip” – change in control of the Senate & White House (to GOP) and House (to Dems).  This has never happened before.  While rare prior wave elections have flipped all three from one party to the other (1952 (D to R), 1932 (R to D)), the House & Senate have never both switched in different directions in the same year.  While I’d still expect the party that wins the White House to also capture the House, don’t under-estimate the power of anti-incumbency — voters are convinced things are moving in the wrong direction and tossing out incumbents everywhere — change elections are the new normal.

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1. The “Triple-Flip”: Betting markets currently predict 2024 will be the ultimate change election – a “triple flip” where the White House, House & Senate all switch party control.  (Why it matters: Constant change in partisan alignments makes policy less consistent & markets less predictable, making long-term investments challenging).

2. Frightening Fiscal Future:  A new analysis this week from the Center for a Responsible Budget finds America’s national debt will rise even faster under either Harris or Trump.  (Why it matters: America is going bankrupt gradually then suddenly.  While no one can predict when we’ll face the great reset, it’s surely coming). (NYT)

3. Challenging Lame Duck Looming: The 118^th Congress has passed fewer laws than any modern Congress… and possibly ever (chart). The upcoming Lame Duck session will take place amidst ongoing litigation over the Presidential outcome, House recounts (possibly to determine majority control) and contested GOP leadership elections. (Why it matters: Critical unfinished business includes Funding (appropriations), Farming (Farm Bill), Defense (NDAA) & Disasters (FEMA+) but may struggle given these significant distractions).

4. Troublesome Trend for Democrats: “Gallup found more voters identifying as Republicans than Democrats, the first time the GOP had an advantage in the third quarter before a presidential election in surveys dating to 1992.”  NBC News, Pew Research & the New York Times likewise each found the GOP ahead on this question at times this year. (Why it matters: Voters tend to lean more against the party in the White House when the President’s job approval is low, as it was in 1992, 2008 & 2020 and is today (Biden: 57% disapprove vs 37% approve). (Gallup via WSJ).

5. Troublesome Trend for Republicans:  Democratic campaigns are significantly out-raising Republicans this cycle, giving them more firepower to communicate their message and get out their vote. As of Oct. 7, Democrats have reserved $266M for future ads vs $178M for Republicans. (Why it matters: If money is speech, Democrats will be speaking a lot more in the home stretch). (Ad Impact)

6. Climate Calamities Conceal Climate Calamities: This week’s look at troublesome trends began when I couldn’t access the NOAA website tracking “billion dollar disasters” because the website is maintained… in Asheville, NC, and got knocked out by Hurricane Helene… it’s still offline.

Here’s what it is supposed to show:

Here’s what it presently shows:

VIDEO

When Oscar Munoz assumed the helm of United Airlines, the company was still struggling to integrate UAL & Continental five years after they merged. 38 days into his initial listening tour, he suffered a massive heart attack. We discussed his terrific book Turnaround Time explaining how leader and company recovered & prospered.