Six-Chart Sunday (#30) - A Campaign Reimagined

6 Infographics from the week + 1 Podcast (Me! on Chuck Todd's Podcast)

Despite running against the same opponent on behalf of the same party with the same campaign team defending the same past four years, Vice President Kamala Harris is running a very different campaign from that waged by President Joe Biden until one month ago. Here’s a look at the six biggest differences between the Biden & Harris campaigns.

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1. Defining Trump: Dangerous vs Weird. Joe Biden portrayed Donald Trump as an “existential threat to democracy,” a malign and overwhelmingly powerful force. By contrast the Harris campaign calls Trump “weird,” attacking his brand (strong) rather than his character. The strategic insight that such a shift might work better with undecided voters likely earned Gov. Walz his spot on the ticket.

2. Core Narrative: Institutional Integrity vs Economic Populism. President Biden portrayed his campaign as a crusade for “the soul of America,” a battle to Save Democracy from the forces of autocracy epitomized by Trump. By contrast, Harris has so far focused on policies to “save the middle class.” For an electorate predominantly concerned with economic issues, Harris’ economic populism may prove more effective.

3. Personal Brand: Experienced Insider vs Fresh Outsider. Biden leaned-in to his 46 years in federal service, running as a steady, experienced, reliable leader — the consummate insider who knew how to get things done. While this served him well in chaotic 2020, 2024 voters increasingly voice a desire for change, with 73% believing we are “on the wrong track.” Harris is running as an outsider… a fresh, new challenger for change… hard to pull off for a sitting VP but perhaps possible against a former President (see “Who is the Change Candidate in 2024?”).

4. Track Record: Accomplishments vs Possibilities. President Biden is justifiably proud of his robust record of legislative accomplishment & campaigned on his record… “Bidenomics is Working!” Harris has disavowed many positions she championed in 2020 and prefers to focus on the future — what she will do — rather than defending prior stances or less popular aspects of the Biden-Harris record.

5. Events & Media Strategy: Both Scripted, Tele-prompted & Media Averse… but Harris Huge Events & High-Energy. Biden held fewer first-term news conferences than any modern predecessor, and his campaign events were generally lower-energy, using a teleprompter even for fundraisers in private homes. While Harris has likewise dodged media interviews or unscripted public events so-far, her high-energy rallies are drawing huge crowds.

6. State of the Race: Losing vs Winning. When Biden dropped out he was losing and things were deteriorating fast. Perhaps he could have turned things around in the remaining 107 days, but few had confidence after the debate. By contrast betting markets and election modelers (Nate Silver, The Economist) currently see Harris winning. A lot can (and will) happen in the remaining 79 days, but with a new candidate and new strategy Democrats are once again competitive.

AUDIO

The great Chuck Todd — NBC News’ chief political analyst, former moderator of Meet the Press & legendary guru — was kind enough to invite me back onto his podcast this week to discuss politics & the election.