Six-Chart Sunday – The Rorschach Republic

6 Infographics + 1 Video (Pollster Bill McInturff with new data on the 2026 Midterms)

Americans consume different news, form different views & increasingly perceive different realities. We often consider the exact same thing and come to radically different conclusions. That makes it a lot harder for leaders to find the common ground needed to tackle major challenges in the 21^st century. For example:

• Is unsustainable debt due to insufficient taxation or excessive spending?

• Will AI empower or impoverish workers? Should we speed it up or slow it down?

• Are elections at risk from voting fraud or voter intimidation?

1. We Live in a Rorschach Republic

Bill Clinton famously declared “there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America.” But what if we can’t agree on what’s right and what’s wrong? Is epidemiologist Anthony Fauci the Greatest of All Time richly-deserving his Presidential Medal of Freedom or a discredited “goat” who misled Americans on COVID? When you see a home with an “In This House We Believe” sign do you think “wonderful neighbors” or “woke grand-standers?” Divisions are real, and they often feel intense, stark & profound.

2. Divergent Media Diets Drive Divisions

Frequently differences in perceived reality are due to radically different media diets. But do divergent viewpoints drive us to consume different media… or does ideological media drive us to divergent viewpoints?

And there’s a correlation between increased media consumption and misperceptions of the motives and beliefs of the “other side.” (More in Common) “People who said they read the news ‘most of the time’ were nearly three times more distorted in their perceptions than those who said they read the news ‘only now and then.’”

3. Different Lived Experiences Shape Divergent World Views

Other differences in opinions reflect different lived experiences. In Anaïs Nin’s words, “we do not see things as they are, we see them as we are.” For example, there’s a growing “diploma divide” in U.S. elections, with college graduates voting differently from those with less schooling. It was stark in 2024: 17 of the 18 states with the highest share of college-educated voters voted for Harris, 17 of the bottom 18 for Trump. The educational divide explains profound policy differences across myriad issues, though it’s unclear whether university studies push students politically-leftward or more liberal people are likelier to pursue college degrees in the first place.

4. Partisan Politics Profoundly Skews Opinions

Today’s hyper-partisan politics leave too little room for common sense compromisers. Americans are less likely today to see the other side as the loyal opposition, and much more likely to find them a “threat to our way of life.” This often means our opinions on serious policy issues reflect “which team is at bat” more than the underlying question. Just look at opinion polls on consumer confidence, climate, crime or the war in Iran.

5. Perceived differences are often larger than actual differences.

Might our perceptions of divisions be greater than reality? The great Mike Allen recently reminded Axios readers that “Most people agree on most things, most of the time.”

“Most Americans are too busy for social media, too normal for politics, too rational to tweet. They work, raise kids, coach Little League, go to a house of worship, mow their neighbor’s lawn — and never post a word about any of it… Most Americans are patriotic, hardworking, neighbor-helping, America-loving, money-giving people who don't pop off on social media or plot for power.”

The group More in Common wanted to find out whether Republicans and Democrats could separate perception from reality. Their poll found:

Americans have a deeply distorted understanding of each other. We call this America’s “Perception Gap”. Overall, Democrats and Republicans imagine almost twice as many of their political opponents as reality hold views they consider “extreme”. Even on the most controversial issues in our national debates, Americans are less divided than most of us think. This is good news for those worried about the character of this country. The majority of Americans hold views that may not be so different from your own.

6. How to Avoid the Trap / Be Part of the Solution

Remedying this problem will take broader societal effort (systemic reforms across politics, media, public policy that rebuild trust). But individuals have agency here also... You can be part of the solution. How? Two of my recommendations from “How to Navigate an Age of Disruption”: (a) Balance your media diet and (b) Be curious about why others feel as they do. As Morgan Housel recommends we all ask, “Whose views do I criticize that I would actually agree with if I lived in their shoes?”

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UPCOMING LIVE DISCUSSION: Edward Fishman, on his New York Times bestseller “CHOKEPOINTS: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare”… (WSJ book review)… Join us 3/18 at 4pm… register here

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VIDEO

Famous pollster Bill McInturff returned to our series to discuss the latest NBC News polling on the 2026 midterm elections and what it all means. He kindly shared a new slide deck with some of the detailed findings.