Six-Chart Sunday – The Next Hundred
6 Infographics + 1 Video (The White House Correspondents Dinner that changed the world)
Since FDR’s energetic explosion of initiatives to address the Great Depression in 1933, analysts have benchmarked Presidents after their ”First Hundred Days.” This week (4/30) marks the end of President Trump 2.0’s First Hundred Days, with many media summaries out and forthcoming (Pew; Time; NYT; FT; USA Today). Here we look to “The Next Hundred,” trying to anticipate what’s coming.
Recalibration & Doubling-Down. Is the Trump Administration on the march or in retreat? Yes. As with any Administration, expect the Trump Team to adjust those things that aren’t popular / working (tariffs, the economy) and double down on efforts seen as more successful, especially among the base (the border, anti-DEI, EOs).
Reassure Markets. Job #1 for the Trump Administration in the Next Hundred is reassuring markets that they’ll steady the ship… by slowing down tariffs & speeding up tax cuts & deregulation. Uncertainty over Trump’s economic plans have panicked investors, tanked consumer confidence, ignited inflation fears, chilled business investment and led many to forecast recession. And 2025 is especially dangerous, per the FT, because: “Usually U.S. economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers. This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.”
Reduce Trade Uncertainty. The Trump Administration announced new trade escalations roughly every 3 days during its First Hundred (MUFG), freaking-out markets and alienating allies. Watch for additional pivoting in the Next Hundred, with renewed focus on replicable bilateral deals, greater predictability for businesses and less extreme disruption (more time to adjust).
Navigate the Courts. Issuing Executive Orders is easy. Defending them against legal challenges is harder. The biggest check & balance on Trump 2.0 has been the judiciary, and that may become even more pronounced going forward. So far 211 Administration actions have been challenged in courts, with at least 122 rulings against or temporary pauses declared by Courts. Nine have made it to the U.S. Supreme Court, with more headed there in the Next Hundred.
Engage Congress (to Boost Economy / Expand Authority). The First Hundred Days of the Trump 2.0 Administration were all about Executive Action. While that will continue, the Next Hundred will require more collaboration with Congress, both to boost the economy (extend/expand tax cuts; increase debt ceiling) and potentially to address limitations on actions imposed by courts.
Sharpen Execution. For the MAGA base, President Trump can do no wrong. For detractors, Trump can do no right. But for a third group, possibly the largest — call them the perplexed plurality — the Trump Administration often seems to have the right goals but consistently disappointing means for achieving them. The Administration is doing what a majority thinks is right, but in a way that a majority thinks is wrong… with no better example than DOGE:
VIDEO
Last night was the 90th White House Correspondents Dinner. Fourteen years ago at that event, then-President Obama famously roasted now-President Trump. According to Trump political adviser Roger Stone, “I think that is the night he resolved to run.”
The Next Hundred
Since when does cutting taxes boost the economy?
Once again, one of my favorite Sunday reads. Bruce adheres to to "a picture is worth a thousands words (as long as it has a reliable source reference), but then provides a short explanatory narrative. The best of noth worlds.