Six-Chart Sunday – The Art of War in the 21st Century

6 Infographics + 1 Video (Edward Fishman's "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare")

Emerging technologies are changing how we work, live, play, learn, parent… and fight. A profound revolution in military affairs is reshaping warfare & redefining power, as is vividly on display in Iran, Ukraine, financial markets and communications networks around the world. 21st century warfare is increasingly:

• Electric

• Asymmetric

• AI-enabled

• Economic

• Omnipresent

While manufacturing capacities & logistics, military training and public support remain critical, digital proficiency increasingly defines winners, a trend sure to accelerate as the AI & quantum revolutions unfold.

---

1. Electric

The power for projecting power is changing. The wars in Iran, Ukraine and Azerbaijan demonstrate the growing importance of drones and autonomous systems powered by electricity (supplied by batteries). Remarkable advances in solar and nuclear energy generation, combined with ever-improving energy storage, offer attractively-resilient alternatives to importing and transporting oil or LNG.

2. Asymmetric

The calculus of war is changing. The price of offense (drones, rockets, cyber) is substantially-lower than the cost of defense. Attackers will readily lose scores of drones if one reaches its target, whereas defenders fail if they don’t stop them all. The maths don’t math:

U.S.-made Patriot air-defense missiles have been largely successful in stopping Iranian Shaheds and ballistic missiles. But using $4 million rockets to destroy $20,000 drones illustrates a problem that has haunted Western military planners since early in Russia’s war on Ukraine: The cheap weapons can chew up resources meant for much more complex threats. (Bloomberg)

Watch for ongoing investment in lower-cost alternatives by innovative & nimble defense tech players.

3. AI-Enabled

The speed, precision, planning, coordination and execution of warfare is rapidly evolving, driven by advances in AI.

The use of A.I. in warfare is no longer theoretical. A.I. is on the battlefield… A.I. is deeply embedded in the process of collecting intelligence and using it to shape strategic decisions [in Ukraine & Iran]… The U.S. used it when it captured the leader of Venezuela. Israel used it during its war in Gaza. And the use of A.I. on the battlefield is only just getting started. (NYT)

Not surprisingly, militaries around the world are substantially increasing investments in AI capabilities and partnering more closely with AI innovators.

4. Economic

Nations are increasingly weaponizing economic strengths. Edward Fishman’s 2025 bestseller, “Chokepoints: How the Global Economy Became a Weapon of War,” catalogues how governments increasingly leverage tools such as sanctions, control over critical technologies and financial restrictions to advance foreign policy goals. The U.S. exploits its dominant chokepoints (e.g. dollar-based global financial networks, advanced semiconductor technologies, maritime insurance & trade finance, access to western markets, sovereign assets held in dollars) to pressure Iran, Russia & China, among others. China has followed suit, leveraging its own asymmetric advantages (rare earth elements & critical mineral production, pharmaceuticals & medical supply chains, electronics manufacturing, EV batteries & green energy materials) to counter U.S. pressure and “punish countries who offend it.”

5. Omnipresent

If you use a computer or smartphone, you’re on the new front lines. If you rely on GPS, cloud services or semiconductors, you’re on the front lines too. While some civilians always face direct attack in conflicts, in today’s wars the front lines are everywhere. With so much of our lives online, cyber warfare can target civilian communications, private markets and critical infrastructure (including power, water & sanitation). The first shots of World War III will likely come in cyberspace… and may have already been fired.

6. Still Dependent on Manufacturing, Logistics & Public Support

While the art of war in the 21st century is rapidly transforming, certain basic truths persist:

• Manufacturing capacity matters — Better technology only wins if you don’t run out of it… as Stalin allegedly declared, “quantity has a quality all its own.” War simulations consistently find the U.S. loses to China for lack of domestic industrial capacity (see chart below), validated as the wars in Iran & Ukraine deplete American stockpiles much faster than we can replenish them.

• Supply chains & logistics matter — Much of 21st century geopolitics reflects a race for resilience (obtaining self-sufficiency in case of conflict) and leverage (creating dependencies among adversaries to discourage conflict). Many see regaining dominance and reducing vulnerabilities in our global competition with China as the “signal in the noise” of Trump’s agenda (see The China Theory of Everything).

• Public support matters — especially in democracies. As President Lincoln observed amidst the Civil War: "With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it, nothing can succeed."

SO WHAT: Digital proficiency defines winners on the 21st century battlefield. These proficiencies derive from a three-part formula, with government policy necessary but insufficient absent a dynamic private sector: (1) INNOVATIVE CAPACITY (talent, R&D, freedom to invest / experiment / build) + (2) BUSINESS CLIMATE (entrepreneurship-supporting tax, regulatory, trade, legal & competition policies) + (3) STRATEGIC INVESTMENT (infrastructure, education, government deployment and embrace of market disruptors).

VIDEO

Over 150 attendees joined this week for a live discussion with Eddie Fishman, who offered terrific insights from his New York Times bestselling book: “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare.”