Six-Chart Sunday – Stuck

6 Infographics + 1 Video (Wine & the White House)

Among Americans’ myriad blessings, none are greater than our hope & faith. Hope that the future will be brighter; faith that hard work & fair play will pay off. Yet increasingly these superpowers are in short supply. Americans feel stuck… in their jobs, homes, politically, as a nation… and thus our optimism for the future is at low ebb. Why do we feel stuck, and how to get unstuck?

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1. We’ve lost our faith in the American Dream. “Nearly 70% of people said they believe the American dream—that if you work hard, you will get ahead—no longer holds true or never did, the highest level in nearly 15 years of surveys.” (WSJ)

2. Geographic immobility. “Domestic migration rates are hovering near all-time recorded lows after just 7.9% of Americans switched towns or cities last year. That’s fewer than half of the 16.7% who were on the move in 1994, as the share of people relocating even within the same county plummeted from 10.4% 30 years ago to a little over 4% now.” (Visual Capitalist)

3. Stuck at home. One reason Americans are moving less is due to the rise in mortgage interest rates (though the trend above preceded higher rates). “After a decade of near-zero rates, though, today’s levels still feel like a shock to the system… Selling now would mean trading those low monthly payments for something far pricier… The result? A market freeze, as buyers wait for rates to cool while sellers remain anchored to their old mortgages. Last year, existing home sales hit their slowest pace in nearly three decades.”

   

4. Stuck at work. “More than 70% of Americans think it’s difficult to find a better job than their current one, according to a recent Harris Poll survey for Bloomberg News. And 75% say employers have more leverage in the job market than employees do.” Concerns include broader economic conditions and reports of companies deploying AI to replace entry-level jobs. As a result, fewer U.S. workers are quitting their jobs.

5. Sorted & stuck politically. Over the past three presidential elections, 407 of the 435 House districts consistently voted Republican or Democratic (chart below). If you either live in red America or blue America, and you’re independent-minded, you might feel stuck — with little hope that your vote can make a difference. The pattern extends to the House, where in 2024 there were only 16 crossover districts (Trump + a Democratic or Harris + a Republican), tied with 2016 for a modern low. (UVA).

6. Americans don’t believe our leaders can solve problems. We are presently in our 6th government shutdown of the past 30 years. During this period federal debt doubled from 66% of GDP (in 1995) to 125% today (Treasury), with interest payments now exceeding defense spending and both Social Security & Medicare trust funds hurtling towards insolvency. Voters fault leaders in both parties, with Democratic voters even net disapproving of their own party’s leadership.

SO WHAT? The great paradox of the 21st century is that we’re entering an era of extraordinary promise — new technologies and knowledge promising a true golden age for humanity — with historically-high levels of anxiety & low levels of hope. Much mistrust is merited, the product of government and business leadership failures. Some loss of hope reflects a broken information ecosystem optimized to monetize fear, uncertainty & doubt. At core, the challenge may be systemic — the world runs on policies and institutions created in the 20th century to address challenges of the 20th century. That operating system is out of date and citizens feel fragile; unprotected. The central challenge for business, government and community leaders in the next decade is identifying and implementing reforms that better align these institutions and policies with our new realities. Fix those, we get unstuck.

VIDEO

Need a drink yet? Way back in 2021 we hosted a virtual happy hour with Fred Ryan, author of “Wine & the White House,” a fun look at what American Presidents drank, served and recommended. Oenophile & good friend Steve Haro hosted this Q&A with friends. (Fred’s book remains a great holiday gift for those who love wine & politics).