Six-Chart Sunday – Redistricting Wars

6 Infographics + 1 Video (Paul Kedrosky on the AI Bubble)

The Long-standing Norms:

• The President’s party loses seats in midterm elections (18 of the 20 since WWII).

• States redistrict once per decade following the Census & reapportionment.

• Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act requires the creation & maintenance of majority-minority districts.

The New Realities:

• Donald Trump rejects / challenges / blows up norms, disrupting political patterns.

• Congressional acquiescence & Supreme Court reassessments support many Trump challenges to established precedent.

• Once unthinkable outcomes must increasingly be planned-for.

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1. Historically-Small House Margins

The 2024 elections resulted in a 220-215 Republican majority in Congress, the smallest since 1931. If Democrats net +3 seats in the 2026 midterms, they regain control of the House (218-217).

2. Hold White House = Lose House Seats

In 18 of the 20 midterm elections since World War II, the party holding the White House lost net seats in House midterms. The size of the loss (avg. 27) depends on the number of at-risk seats (e.g. districts that voted for the other party’s Presidential nominee in the prior election) and the sitting President’s popularity (the lower the President’s job favorability, the greater the number of lost seats).

3. Many States Redrawing Maps in 2025

Traditionally redistricting is usually done once per decade, though this is not dictated by the Constitution or a specific law. President Trump is pushing Republican states to redraw maps in 2025 to maximize GOP advantage for 2026, and three have already done so (TX, NC, MO) with two more coming (OH, UT). Many Democratic governors such as California’s Gavin Newsom are moving to “fight fire with fire” with hyper-partisan gerrrymanders of their own. Up to 15 states in total (so far) are considering or acting: the 5 above plus CA, FL, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, NE, SC, VA & WI.

4. GOP’s 2026 Southern Strategy

Democrats could be in danger of losing around a dozen districts across the South if the court strikes down Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais, a case the court heard two weeks ago. “Without Section 2, which has been interpreted to require the creation of majority-minority districts, Republicans could eliminate upward of a dozen Democratic-held districts across the South.” (NYT)

5. Trust Will Suffer

When election rules are changed, the losing side often cries foul and voters lose trust in the system. Bush v Gore, Kemp v Abrams and Biden v Trump 2020 all saw defeated candidates and their allies allege that pre-election rule changes tainted outcomes. While confidence in the accuracy of elections remains relatively high (when compared with cratering trust in other institutions or trust in the federal government to “do the right thing”), the 2025-26 Redistricting Wars will surely erode many Americans’ faith in the fairness of our elections.

6. Possibilities for Reform

82% of voters say redistricting should be managed by a nonpartisan commission, not the party in power (August 2025 NBC News poll). But so far only 7 states have embraced commissions. Such a reform probably requires a U.S. Constitutional amendment to stick, as state-level reforms can get reversed (e.g. California seems increasingly likely to reverse its own 2008 & 2010 reforms — that stood up a non-partisan commission — to free the Democratic super-majority there to impose its own hyper-partisan gerrymander to offset those by Republican states).

SO WHAT?

Experts began 2025 confident that control of the House would flip in 2026, with all the policy and political outcomes that implies. Now, they’re not so sure. Expect maximum pressure from the Trump Administration and Democratic Party operatives in states, Courts, fundraising circuits and the national media over the next 13 months, likely bleeding into the actions & operations of states and the federal government.

VIDEO

Are the pace of AI investments & extraordinary valuations of AI companies sustainable, or are we amidst another “bubble,” as occurred with dot-coms and railroads? Investor Paul Kedrosky was the first to raise this critical question, and his analysis offered an epic “chart that launched 1,000 takes.” We discussed this week: