Six-Chart Sunday – The Politics of Prices

6 Infographics + 1 Video (Matt Lewis & I discuss elections)

In peacetime, no issue motivates voters more than the economy broadly, and prices specifically. Voters unhappy with Biden-era inflation powered Donald Trump’s 2024 victory over Kamala Harris. “Cost of living” concerns remain top of mind for voters in this Tuesday’s elections and next year’s midterms. While Trump Administration policies could be poised to catalyze an investment surge, they might also put pressure on prices. Who would an inflationary boom benefit politically? For now, more polls show Republicans better-trusted on the economy, though margins are shrinking. And while the President’s approval is lowest on the issue of inflation, his net favorability remains well above the Democratic & Republican parties.

---

1. Prices Crisis Boosted Trump in 2024

Prices/inflation consistently polled as the most important issue for Swing Voters & Trump supporters, and nearly #1 for Harris voters during the campaign. Post-election polls found the same (e.g. PRRI: “Most American voters (56%) agreed that increasing costs was the most critical factor in their vote choice.”)

2. Consumers Remain Worried by Washington Policies

The University of Michigan’s most recent consumer survey shows more respondents than ever say the government is doing a poor job managing economic policy, with about two-thirds of consumers saying Washington is performing poorly on inflation and unemployment, compared with just 18% who say it’s doing a good job. “It’s a remarkable milestone for a dataset that goes back to 1978, spanning nine presidencies, six recessions and a pandemic.” (Bloomberg)

3. 2025-26 Voters Are Focused on Prices

Polls in advance of Tuesday’s off-year elections show voters in Virginia, New Jersey & New York City consistently identifying the cost of living / prices / inflation as their #1 issue (e.g. “CBS News New York mayoral poll finds cost of living, call for change drive Mamdani’s lead in mayor’s race.”) Likewise, an October poll of registered Wisconsin voters shows 69% of voters in this critical swing state are “very concerned” about the cost of living. (That said, Tuesday’s marquee elections are non-federal & lack incumbent candidates; they seem likelier to turn on personalities & candidate quality than inflation concerns, but expect exit polls to cite the “cost of living”).

4. Voters Trust Republicans More on the Economy

While voters are concerned about prices, a majority of polls continue to show the GOP better-trusted on the economy (e.g. AP/NORC GOP+11; Reuters GOP +10 (chart); Wash Post GOP +7; Economist GOP+4). Other recent polls suggest a tightening picture such as the October Gallup poll that found Democrats “better to keep the country prosperous” by +4.

5. Trump Approval Lowest on Inflation

Notwithstanding support for many Trump initiatives (such as securing the southern border), voters give the Administration its lowest marks on handling inflation per Nate Silver’s poll tracker.

6. But Trump Remains More Popular than Both Parties

When chased by a grizzly bear, you don’t need to be faster than the bear, only faster than the other hikers being chased. Likewise in politics, you don’t need to have net positive favorability, merely higher than the alternatives. Cost of living concerns notwithstanding, President Trump enjoys 3x better favorability ratings than the Democratic Party right now and nearly 2x better than his own GOP. (As for other individual leaders’ net fav, Schumer is -19.2, Thune -6.0, Jeffries -5.4, Johnson -5.3 & Vance -5.0).

SO WHAT: Pessimists predict stagflation while optimists foresee a new golden age. Various policy priorities — around trade, immigration, FDI, healthcare, AI infrastructure investment and Federal Reserve rates — may well compete with federal efforts to limit inflation as leaders also look to grow jobs, catalyze investment and advance other goals. To govern is to choose.

VIDEO

Matt Lewis remains one of my favorite writers and political observers, and I always enjoy invitations to his podcast. This week we discussed the 2025 & 2026 elections.