Six-Chart Sunday – Predictable Unpredictability

6 Infographics + 1 Video (Admiral Bill McRaven, on changing the world)

For many observers, the actions of the second Trump Administration seem chaotic, impulsive & unpredictable. Businesses and investors struggle to make sense of what’s happening and anticipate what’s next.

But what if the unpredictability is predictable? While plenty of specifics will remain inherently uncertain, much of the direction from Washington is clear. That means risks can be identified, tracked, mitigated and/or (somewhat) hedged.

Here’s one attempt to find signals in the noise, and what organizations should be doing to navigate the disruption.

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1. Predictable: There will be tariffs, early & often. Unpredictable: Starting when, against whom, for how long, inviting what retaliation, allowing what exceptions and ended via what new agreements? For businesses tracking negotiations and planning for these multiple contingencies, Bloomberg’s comprehensive chart (below) of U.S. tariffs imposed, threatened & suspended is helpful:

2. Predictable: President Trump “sees the [stock] market as a barometer of his success and abhors the idea that his actions might drive down stock prices.” (NYT). Unpredictable: How much “short-term pain” in the markets & economy is the President willing to endure to effectuate desired long-term changes in trade, fiscal & regulatory policies.

3. Predictable: There will be lawsuits to block executive actions, as there were against prior Presidencies. (More than 100 have already been filed in 2025, and “as of March 15, at least 46 rulings have at least temporarily paused some of the president’s initiatives.” Unpredictable: How will 2025-2029 Supreme Court decisions differ from those of the less-conservative 2017-2020 Court, where the first Trump Administration lost more often than they won? And how will the Trump 2.0 Administration respond if / when it loses?

4. Predictable: The U.S. needs to refinance “an unusually high amount” of debt in 2025 ($6.74 trillion) which gets harder as interest rates rise. Unpredictable: What short-term measures will the Administration take to reduce the yield on the 10-year note? Is a recession acceptable? WSJ interviewed Treasury Secretary Bessent on this question, where he cited policies to reduce spending and increase energy supply among others.

5. Predictable: The overarching goal of the Trump Administration is re-industrialization… improving supply chain resilience & leadership in manufacturing, innovation & industrial capacity. Unpredictable: All policy choices have trade-offs, costs & benefits. Trade wars accelerate re-shoring but erode soft power. Weakening the dollar juices exports but also domestic inflation. Anticipating policy directions is inherently complex & multi-dimensional.

6. Predictable: Strategic players are taking steps to better understand, anticipate and navigate an unusually-disruptive policy environment, as detailed below. Unpredictable: How many businesses are merely “hoping” things return to “normal,” rather than proactively adapting to the new normal?

VIDEO

I’m a huge fan of Admiral Bill McRaven, a true American hero whom I interviewed on his 2023 book on leadership. I’m hoping to have him back soon for his upcoming book. Here’s his famous 20-minute address to the University of Texas graduates in 2014, maybe greatest commencement speech of all time…