Six-Chart Sunday – Numbers to Watch in 2026

6 Infographics + 1 Video (veteran political journalist Mark Halperin)

2026 promises maximum uncertainty: Will the economy roar or retreat? Is an AI bubble inflating or bursting? Will the US & China cut deals or decouple further? More war or peace in Ukraine? Are Democrats poised to reclaim the House in 2026? The Senate? For those trying to identify, track and predict political risk, here are six critical numbers to watch in 2026.

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1. Presidential Approval

The best predictor of midterm election outcomes is the sitting President’s approval rating. The President’s party lost House seats in 18 of the 20 midterms since World War 2, with gains only in 1998 (when Clinton enjoyed 66% approval) & 2002 (Bush 63%). President Trump’s current approval rating is 43% (RealClear Politics), with voter concerns over the economy a significant headwind. Watch for Trump Administration efforts to catalyze growth and increase consumer confidence early in 2026, while concurrently building campaign war chests & urging redistricting in red states.

2. Voter Prioritization of Health Costs

Historically voters tend to favor Democrats on the issue of health care. When it’s front-and-center, Dems prosper. Right now Americans’ #1 issue is the cost of living, and their #1 cost concern is health care. That’s likely to favor Democrats in the 2026 midterms if it remains true next November. Watch for both parties to maneuver for advantage on issues such as expiring ACA subsidies, drug prices and “waste, fraud & abuse.”

3. China’s Global Trade Surplus

China spent decades subsidizing its domestic manufacturing capacity and building its export engine, increasingly evident in its growing annual trade surpluses. China’s global trade surplus may hit 1% of global GDP by 2029, “the highest level on record in any single economy, eclipsing the United States in the late 1940s.” (Goldman Sachs). And “rather than moving out of lower-end sectors, China is maintaining its global dominance in areas like textiles while simultaneously advancing in high-value industries such as electric vehicles and IT equipment.” (Chang Shu, Bloomberg Economics). This threatens manufacturing jobs around the world and increases the economic leverage wielded by the Chinese Communist Party. Watch for global deals to reduce dependence on / offset export subsidies by China.

4. The Price of Oil

A falling price of oil forces Russia to fund its ongoing war in Ukraine by selling gold and spending down its national wealth fund, increasing pressure to end the war. Falling oil costs reduce inflation, shipping and travel costs and encourage oil-dependent economies to diversify. By contrast, rising oil prices threaten global economic recession and fuel (sorry) inflation, empowering oil-rich nations. A 2016 study further found that “each 10-cent increase in the gas price was associated with more than half a percentage point decline in presidential approval.” Watch for Trump Administration efforts to expand domestic & allied oil production to reduce prices.

5. AI Reality vs Hype

The AI boom was responsible for 92% of U.S. growth in the first half of 2025, with hyper-scalers’ already-extraordinary capex announcements accelerating throughout the year. Will investment commitments keep accelerating in 2026? Will announced deals actually get finalized? How much anticipated growth relies on potentially-inflated growth plans, as some energy traders increasingly fear:

”Developers are approaching multiple utilities with the same project in a quest to find the lowest-priced power, leading to so-called phantom data centres, according to energy industry experts and company executives. The plans are being left in the queue of projects waiting to connect to the grid even after they are no longer viable, leading to bloated demand forecasts.” (FT)

Perhaps most critical of all, what if the leading bellwethers to whom so many others are closely tied fail to meet extraordinarily-high growth projections (due to competition, execution failures, slowing customer growth, etc.)? The WSJ wonders “Is OpenAI Becoming Too Big to Fail?”, while Bernstein Research analyst Stacy Rasgon starkly in an investor note this week:

[OpenAI CEO Sam] Altman “has the power to crash the global economy for a decade or take us all to the promised land. Right now we don’t know which is in the cards.” (Bloomberg)

[SAVE THE DATE: We will discuss this live (click to register) on 1/12/26 at 4:30pm ET with Keach Hagey, WSJ reporter & author of “The Optimist: Sam Altman, OpenAI, and the Race to Invent the Future.”]

6. Trump Investment Boom Reality vs Hype

An epic domestic investment boom may or may not unfold starting in 2026, catalyzed by Presidential deal-making. Per Bloomberg:

“President Donald Trump often proclaims that he’s brought the U.S. a historic investment boom, drawing pledges he says will reach $21 trillion by the end of the year from governments and companies eager to win his favor. If his estimate is right, the U.S. is facing a wave of capital worth almost 70% of its annual economic output. Even spread over four years, Trump’s claim would represent the largest capital-spending explosion in post-war US history. It would also outstrip the New Deal and the nineteenth century railroad-building boom.

A Bloomberg Economics analysis raises questions “not just over the size of Trump’s claimed boom but the nature, durability and real economic impact of the influx he wants credit for.” While the time frame is also unclear (2026 or later?), even portions of such an investment surge could have major impact:

“[E]ven if he’s wrong by a factor of 10, we’re still talking $2 trillion. Even if he’s off by a factor of a hundred, that’s still a lot of money.” (Stephen Moore)

SO WHAT? There’s plenty more numbers to watch in 2026, of course. Overall inflation, Federal Reserve interest rates, stock market valuations & U.S. government debt costs are four more with massive economic, social and geopolitical significance. Investors, business leaders & market strategists need to see farther in 2026, expanding information sources, risk analysis & scenario planning.

VIDEO

This week I discussed the state of U.S. politics with veteran journalist Mark Halperin, including: Trump 2.0 at one year — what have we learned, what’s next; meaning of the elections of 2025 & predictions for 2026; the presidential primaries & potential nominees in 2028; why it’s a golden age for independent political journalism.