Six-Chart Sunday – New Realities

6 Infographics + 1 Podcast (2025 in 25 Minutes)

I recently spoke to a company Board that asked me to present on “big macro themes of the 21st century.” My thesis, in a nutshell: disruptive changes in technology, geopolitics & culture have undermined confidence in experts & institutions, causing voters to push back against those in authority, demand sweeping policy reforms and consistently vote for change. I included the following six charts:

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1. Digital proficiency defines winners. Whether in politics, markets or on the battlefield, success increasingly depends on one’s ability to strategically leverage information technologies. This trend will further accelerate in the age of AI.

2. Institutions are not trusted. The public is increasingly skeptical of institutions, with new Gallup data this week confirming that the half-century trend of eroding trust persists. Trust is nuanced, however (see #6 below).

3. Voters want change. Voters in the U.S. and around the world are unhappy with the direction of their countries and keep voting to “throw the bums out”. In the U.S. there were just 3 change elections (where the party controlling the House, Senate and/or White House changed) out of the 10 held in the 1960’s & 70s. In the 80’s & 90’s it happened 4 times in 10 elections. This century? 11 out of 13 elections.

4. The free trade era is over. The elite consensus that free trade would prove a rising tide that lifts all boats has shattered. Politicians on both sides of the aisle (and around the world) are increasingly talking populist and walking nationalist. The industrial policy era is here to stay.

5. The political pendulum keeps swinging. Demand for change is not limited to the ballot box. Americans are primed to protest & motivated to march. The energy & activism from the “out party” often helps bring change in the next election, a cycle that persists. The activist energy is there and will surely increase per a new CNN poll: “Democrats are far more energized than Republicans about participating in next year’s midterms.” The question is whether the Party will be ready, for as CNN observes: “deeply negative perceptions of the Democratic Party and its officeholders raise questions about the party’s ability to capitalize on that energy.”

6. Who is telling your story? Relying on the media to define you is fraught — the media is biased towards stories that shock & outrage. Trust is nuanced. The generic “big business” is overwhelmingly not trusted in Gallup surveys, but the specific “my employer” is the most trusted institution in Edelman’s polls. People don’t trust mass media, but we trust the podcasters we listen to and Substackers we read. Digitally-proficient politicians who break the fourth wall & engage citizens directly — Trump, AOC, Mamdani — are seen as more authentic, building devoted followers who trust them. For businesses or political leaders the answer is the same: you need to show up and tell your own story, personally, authentically & viscerally. All trust is local.

SO WHAT? Just as the original Gilded Age led to an extensive era of reform, our new Gilded Age is catalyzing a fundamental re-imagination of the policies, parties & institutions that govern our lives. We are amidst a new reform era. As with the last one, it will span decades, disrupt incumbents and transform society and the world, often precipitating crises. As I advised the Board, navigating this age of disruption demands new, more proactive strategies that are responsive to new, 21st century realities. The winners won’t be the strongest or smartest, but rather those “most adaptable to change."

AUDIO

We have a podcast! Called “14th & G,” and my partner David Thomas (DT) and I cover the wide world of policy & political news — “2025 in 25 Minutes” — each month. Brand new episode this week!