Six-Chart Sunday – Influence
6 Infographics + 1 Video (Lobbyists in the movies)
Federal lobbying expenditures are set to hit a new record in 2025, likely topping $5B for the first time. But lobbying remains a fraction of the total spent on influencing government policy & policymakers, with registered lobbyists performing just one of several complementary functions in effective influence campaigns. Winning hearts & minds demands a comprehensive surround sound effort to shape (1) what policymakers read, see & hear; (2) whom they meet back home and in Washington; and (3) what experts and activists define and demand. While “lobbyists” are much-maligned, in truth their work is just one more niche expertise in our highly-specialized economy.
New lobbying record coming. Federal lobbying expenditures are tracking to exceed $5 billion in 2025, the highest amount ever (both nominally and inflation-adjusted, though not as a share of GDP). Registered lobbying activities are transparent and highly-disclosed, while broader influence spending is not.
As Compared to What? While $5 billion is a lot of money, spending on registered lobbying activity is less than half as much as what we spend on Halloween, ~1/3 of what Americans spend at car washes each year and less than 10% of what we annually drop on power boating.
Seeking surround sound. Effective influence campaigns aim for information “surround sound.” Lobbying (i.e. person-to-person discussions with policy makers & staff) is one of many activities needed for an impactful influence campaign that shapes the information environment in which policymakers understand and consider issues and determine what is in the best interests of their constituents, values and political ambitions.
Lobbyists are a fraction of influence professionals & the only ones who publicly disclose clients & revenue. Influence campaigns regularly tap the talents of lawyers, PR professionals, grassroots organizers, fundraisers, online influencers and countless others, most of whose activities remain undisclosed. Some estimate the size of the “shadow lobbying” community as equal to the number of registered lobbyists, while others argue it is at least 13x as large. Only those who spend at least 20% of their time on federal lobbying activity need to register as official “lobbyists,” with a great many “19%’ers” carefully monitoring their time allocations to remain unregistered / under the RADAR.
The public holds a dim view of lobbyists. While only 8% of Americans think Members of Congress have high or very high “honesty and ethical standards,” that’s twice the share who say the same for lobbyists. This likely reflects the reality that every stumping politician bemoans “lobbyists” as the reason for all the nation’s ills. In reality lobbyists represent all sides of all issues, just like lawyers, and you can safely bet there are lobbyists working both for and against your interests. The share of unethical lobbyists is likely the same as the share of unethical bankers, lawyers, teachers, police, reporters and any other profession, but that’s a far less effective applause line on the hustings than “drain the swamp.”
Lobbying is specialization. If you want to sell your house, you hire an expert with lots of experience selling houses. Same when you want representation in court. Whether you need surgery on your liver, an estate lawyer to draw up your will, a professor to teach accounting or an advertiser to design a marketing campaign for your new widget, you seek out a specialist… a professional who studies the unique task deeply and puts in the 10,000 hours to constantly learn and improve. Public policy advocacy is no different.
Still the greatest summary of the life of a lobbyist out there:
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VIDEO
Media portrayals of influencers are rarely fair or realistic, but they’re often pretty funny:
Great observations Bruce. Agree that "surround sound" campaigns that involve multiple domains of influence is the highwater mark for advocacy. Any great examples of an effective surround sound campaign that led to a valuable outcome?
Your articulation of the ‘surround sound’ that’s required to effectively lobby is spot on - and the increased rate of spend on specialized lobbying is telling in that many companies (and CEOs/GCs) are seeing the need to wade into the influence game. The mismatch between lobbying and other specialities or business problems where you hire specialists is that for policy related issues, you can’t simply hire one lobbyist, or one lobbying group to solve your problem. You have to structurally either reorganize to support surround sound engagement or you’re talking about creating an apparatus that needs to be run by someone who understands both the business and gov’t side of things. The sub-specialization of lobbying under the GC limits its ability to influence the surround sound campaigns described.