Six-Chart Sunday – Hard Choices

6 Infographics + 1 Video (Me on the Chuck Todd-cast)

“TO GOVERN IS TO CHOOSE.” Governing is hard these days, with many tough choices between worthy but often irreconcilable priorities.

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1. Spur employment or fight inflation? Faced with rising inflation and falling employment, the Fed this week opted to cut interest rates 0.25%. But soft landings are hard to stick, and the correct amount of monetary stimulus for the economy remains uncertain.

2. Go to college or get to work? A new Gallup poll found the share of Americans who say a college education is “very important” fell from 75% in 2010 to just 35% today. Axios cited a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report that college grads still earn ~$20k more than non-college grads on average (aka the college “wage premium”), roughly the same advantage they enjoyed back in 2010. Over this period tuition rose quite substantially (+70.8% for private colleges, +64.7% in-state public). All three trends in one chart:

3. Dominate AI or prioritize other goals? To win the AI future, a nation needs large quantities of three things: computing + power + talent. Yet the steps needed get there often compete with other goals: maintaining absolute Party control; ESG objectives; tariff & immigration priorities. China has ubiquitous electricity, constrained computing power & shallower-but-growing top talent pools. The US has constrained electricity, ubiquitous computing power & deep but potentially-narrowing top talent pools. The race is on.

4. Guns or Butter? Or Both? A new CBO update reaffirmed that current policies will lead to historically-high levels of debt. America will owe more in 2035 as a percentage of GDP than we did after the Revolutionary War, Civil War & WWI / Great Influenza combined. Debt grows even steeper if the Supreme Court rejects President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs (and they’re not replaced with other tariffs) or Congress makes the temporary OBBB provisions permanent. Unless a burst of AI-enabled productivity substantially accelerates economic growth (possible!), we’re entering uncharted territory.

5. Optimize for engagement or maintain healthier perspective? The media is a business. They need consumers to watch, listen or click, or they fail. Hence the truism “if it bleeds it leads,” highlighting media’s longstanding preference for scary, shocking or negative news. A new study of average weekly sentiment across all Financial Times articles of economic relevancy found that negative bias has grown over the past two decades… and it brought to mind this 2022 study of 47 U.S. publications showing U.S. media headlines denoting anger increased 104% from 2000 to 2019, fear (+150%), disgust (29%), and sadness (+54%)).

   

6. Unleash innovation or restrain chaos? Different governments have different priorities for technology policies. The U.S. prioritizes innovation, the EU consumer protection, China governmental control. As a result, the U.S. has enjoyed the most tech entrepreneurship by a wide margin – 7x more than the EU as measured by privately-held unicorns – but we lack many rules to protect children, contain misinformation or fight fraud. Hard choices.

There are many more hard choices out there.

• Free speech for all or protecting the public interest (as redefined every election)?

• Allies indebted to us or allies who pay their fair share?

• Follow the passions of the base or the prudence of the middle?

SO WHAT? We might cut our leaders a break sometimes. Governing is a lot harder than the never-in-doubt loudmouths on X & Bluesky appreciate.

VIDEO

I always love talking politics with the great Chuck Todd, and he was kind enough to invite me back onto the “Toddcast” for a fun and wide-ranging discussion (before the Kirk assassination). It’s also accessible as a podcast.