Six-Chart Sunday EXTRA – Off-Year Elections

One Day Later

A rare weekday edition with six takes on this week’s contests.

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1. Democrats Won Everywhere

It was a big night for the Democratic Party all across the country.

2. Major Win for Dems in Redistricting Wars

Newsom (and Pelosi) succeed in offsetting earlier GOP House gains in Texas. Net-net, the redistricting wars seem likely to deliver 2-6 seats for the GOP. Newsom rides on towards 2028, Pelosi off into the sunset?

3. Simplest Explanations Usually Best

NYC was NYC, NJ was NJ, and VA did what it always does — the opposite of the prior year’s Presidential result. Over the past half-century, the party not in the White House won the Virginia Governorship 12/13 times.

4. Economic Issues Dominated

“Economic worries were the dominant concern as voters cast ballots for Tuesday’s elections, according to preliminary findings from the AP Voter Poll. The results of the expansive survey of more than 17,000 voters in New Jersey, Virginia, California and New York City suggested the public was troubled by an economy that seems trapped by higher prices and fewer job opportunities.”

5. Activism Rises vs Party in Power

Out-party voters are energized, active and loud. In-power voters are often frustrated that their teams’ promises prove harder to accomplish, take too long or require compromises they don’t like.

6. Expect More Retirements

Per Axios: “If the redistricting brush fire continues to blaze across the country, wiping out as many as a dozen incumbents from each party, the number [of House retirements] is likely to soar…. [with] Proposition 50 passe[d], four GOP incumbents are suddenly facing long odds. Retirement might look more dignified than a long-shot reelection bid… Factor in the growing youth rebellion in the Democratic Party [likely energized by Mamdani’s win in NYC] and it’s pretty clear the House of Representatives will look considerably different when the next Congress is sworn in… November and January typically see the most retirement announcements of the cycle.”