Six-Chart Sunday – Decoding Trump 2.0
6 Infographics + 1 Video (President Trump meets with the Technology CEO Council)
Interest in decoding the “Trump 2.0 operating system” has been off the charts this year. How have things changed from last time? What are their methods and goals? Where are they going next? How does one win their attention, hearts & minds… or resist effectively? Here are six critical elements for understanding the T2.0 OS.
1. A Very Different Presidency
Attitudinally, politically and globally, Trump 2.0 is operating with broader ambitions, more fearlessness & greater understanding of how to maneuver the levers of power to get things done. T2.0 knew exactly whom they wanted in the Cabinet (only 1 departure this year)… how to flood the zone from day one to overwhelm resistance (pick every fight, everywhere, all at once)… how to engage other Washington centers of power (ignore Democrats, dominate Republicans, litigate everything, move fast and break the “deep state”). 2025 is not 2017.
2. Unilateral
They say if you want to go fast, go alone. The Trump 2.0 White House has issued more executive orders in its first year than any Administration since FDR’s, recognizing that executive orders take effect instantly while court challenges to their legality take months. Likewise the great “unlock” for Presidential power is declaring emergencies, as Congress created special authorities for moments that demand quick and decisive action, such as 9-11, COVID or the Iranian hostage crisis. Courts usually defer to the Executive Branch on what constitutes an emergency, and T2.0 declared more first-year emergencies than the seven prior Administrations combined.
3. Transactional, Not Ideological
T2.0 lives to make deals, befitting the author of “The Art of the Deal.” Most other Presidents start with an ideology — anti-Communism, pro-ESG/DEI, neo-con, democracies vs autocracies — and aim for policies that fit over-arching world views. This provides helpful clarity but also potentially limits action. T2.0 has shown a willingness to change its mind… e.g. on TikTok, crypto, Zelenskyy… and less concern about “interfering in the market” (e.g. taking equity stakes or cuts of export sales) than traditional adherents of Milton Friedman / Ronald Reagan conservatism.
4. Domination Imperative
When challenged, T2.0 has only one response… hit back twice as hard. A bit like a coach “working the refs,” T2.0 aims to give critics pause and prompt negotiation rather than retaliation. And it appears to be working: general counsels at media companies & universities are reviewing a lot more copy than they used to, and some big law firms stopped taking “resistance” cases. Businesses and foreign leaders hoping to change minds in T2.0 prefer an inside game of maximum alignment, flattery and conciliation, seeking “wins” for Trump that are not “losses” for themselves.
5. There Will Be Tariffs
President Trump’s most consistent policy belief over five decades is that other nations take advantage of America, selling us more than they buy (trade deficits) & restricting their own markets while expecting ours to be more open (lack of reciprocity). Trump’s longstanding solution is to impose tariffs, which he did last time and is doing far more aggressively in T2.0. Whether or not the Supreme Court overturns the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), there will be tariffs. The President believes deeply in their need & effectiveness, and T2.0 can leverage many other statutory authorities to impose them broadly.
6. Responsive to Events
As aggressive and confident as T2.0 seems, the Administration knows it cannot always bend the world to its will. Losses in the Supreme Court force Administrations to stop what they’re doing (or find alternative approaches to achieve outcomes, such as when the Biden Administration’s found other paths to forgive $183.6 billion in student loans after the Supreme Court rejected their initial plan to forgive more than $500 billion). If the “Trump put” in T1.0 was the equity markets, in T2.0 it’s debt markets and inflation. Unexpected external or domestic events have redirected and sometimes transformed previous Administrations including Trump 1.0. And losses in midterm elections flipped control of the House in 4 of the past 5 Presidents’ first terms, increasing oversight and severely limiting legislative opportunities.
VIDEO
The Technology CEO Council and I met with President Trump this week, with our discussion open to the media. Topics included investments in the U.S., artificial intelligence, and what is needed for global technology leadership. Here’s a few short highlights from the discussion, with all 69 minutes available here.
What an accurate depiction of Trump 2.0. He has been a bull in the proverbial china shop, and he acts so quickly in so many areas that his opponents are never sure where to resist or how to attack. In the first term, reactions to Trump were, "don't listen to what he says, watch what he does." This term is more like, "listen to what he says for clues on what he is going to do." This goes back to the very first slide in this morning's post. Trump is less ideological and more transactionalist. Less guided by past Republican principles and more governed by realpolitik. And finally, he does seem to understand his time for action will soon be limited by his being a lame duck. And what do lame duck presidents do? They do foreign policy.
This is the clearest analysis of Trump we’ve seen. My addition would be to suggest that he does not care about Congress and how his actions are undermining the Republican majority's retention of both Houses. Will Republicans, facing an election in less than a year, begin to stand up?