Six-Chart Sunday – Deals or No Deals?
6 Infographics + 1 Video (Chuck Todd on the Media, Politics, 2026 & 2028)
Started, the Trade Wars have. But where are things headed? Are Liberation Day tariffs the means to an end for the Trump Administration (prelude to new deals), or are tariffs the end game themselves (no deals, no off-ramps)?
THE CASE FOR DEALS
Markets Mayhem. Per the NYT, “people close to Mr. Trump say he sees the market as a barometer of his success and abhors the idea that his actions might drive down stock prices.” If equity markets continue freaking out over trade wars and stagflation fears (S&P down 15.4% since inauguration), many believe the President will cut deals to stabilize markets and reassure investors.
Popularity Plunge. Per the FT: “This week, just before the tariff chaos, 63% of Americans had a negative view of the government’s economic policy, comfortably the highest figure since records began almost 50 years ago. All-time records were also shattered for the share of people who expect the economy to further deteriorate over the next year. Just 25% of US adults said they expect their finances to look better in five years than today — lower even than at the nadir of the Great Recession.” Some believe the President will see plunging approval among many of his voters as a threat to the rest of his agenda and pull back on tariffs.
The World Will Blink. Some observers expect foreign leaders will cave & make the President offers he cannot refuse, providing an off-ramp of tariff suspensions and removal because the U.S. is better positioned to weather a trade war than most other nations. Only 25% of America’s GDP is dependent on trade, lowest among the G20… If we face recession, others face depression.
THE CASE AGAINST DEALS
Trump Trusts Tariffs. Anyone surprised by the President’s enthusiasm for tariffs hasn’t been paying attention… for the past 40 years. Trump is doing what he said he would do & what he truly believes is smart policy that will re-industrialize America, increase investment and good jobs, reduce the deficit, diminish risky China dependencies and make U.S. trading relationships fairer. Trusting in tariffs, the President has consistently escalated throughout his first 10 weeks in office… ratcheting up every ~3 days per MUFG’s excellent latest report (chart).
The Trend is Not Free Trade’s Friend. The world has turned much more protectionist since the Great Financial Crisis. Barriers to imports grew >9x globally from 2008-2024, much in response to Chinese actions. While the Trump 2.0 escalation is extreme for the U.S., it aligns with the worldwide trend toward deglobalization, economic nationalism and industrial policies (WSJ chart).
The Politics of Pushing Back: Patience, Promise & Peril. While many stakeholders oppose the Trump tariffs, the politics of pushing back are fraught. Fearing escalation or retaliation for public opposition, most play an inside game of ongoing negotiation, patient hedging to minimize pain & strategic exploitation of new opportunities.
VIDEO
What’s next for the great Chuck Todd? I sat down on Friday with the former host of Meet the Press to discuss his future, the media and of course politics. Watch to the end to hear his expectations for the 2026 midterms and 2028 major party nominees!