Six-Chart Sunday – Blue Collar Blues

6 Infographics + 1 Video (Sen. Daniel Inouye, Hawaiian Rambo)

Stocks keep hitting new highs with every major investment bank predicting gains in 2026. But consumer confidence is near record-lows, especially among workers with less education (who are less likely to own equities). Blue collar workers earn less, consume less, are more exposed to inflation and face tougher job prospects. Whether and how they vote will decide the outcome of the midterms, and recent polls suggest they’re “in play” given economic anxieties. Politicians hoping to win in 2026 & 2028 take note — soccer moms are out, Walmart moms are back.

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1. Blue Collar Consumers Are Afraid

The January 2026 University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment found record-low confidence among those lacking a college degree.

2. Blue Collar Jobs Keep Disappearing

One reason working class voters are not confident about the economy is the intensifying contraction in blue-collar jobs, with employment shrinking by more than 145k jobs over the last year. Per Joseph Politano:

Job growth in construction has functionally zeroed out, while manufacturing and logistics are each losing tens of thousands of jobs. Warehouses alone have shrunk their workforce by more than 50k over the last year, putting the sector 150k jobs below its early-2022 peak.

3. Consumption Trends Highlight Growing Inequality

Lower-income earners increasingly consume less than higher-income workers, a trend that’s been accelerating in the 21st century. The Kobeissi Letter explains the significance of a stunning FT chart:

The top 10% of US earners now reflect a record 49% of all consumer spending. This percentage has risen +13 points over the last 30 years, marking a dramatic shift in spending power. At the same time, the bottom 80% of earners represent just ~37% of total consumer expenditures, down -11 percentage points since 1995.

This means the top 10% account for a record 33% of US GDP, as personal consumer expenditures account for 68% of total economic output. Meanwhile, the bottom 80% account for just 25% of the US economy.

Asset owners are the only winners in this economy.

4. Higher Inflation Burden on Lower Income Households

Apollo’s Torsten Slok also finds a “K-Shaped Economy” in the inflation data:

Data from the Fed shows that lower-income households are experiencing higher inflation because their consumer spending baskets place greater weight on categories like rent, electricity, food, transportation and other necessities whose prices have risen faster.

5. Blue Collar Voters Punch Below Their Weight

While there are more eligible voters without a college degree as a share of the U.S. population, they’re less likely to vote than those with a bachelor’s degree or more, as seen across the past five midterm elections:

6. How Will the Working Class Vote in 2026?

While President Trump’s anti-Establishment, anti-globalization, anti-elitist rhetoric resonated with many in the working class in 2016 & 2024, these voters don’t believe affordability concerns are a hoax. Whether and how they vote — whether they’ve “realigned” to the GOP permanently or remain swing voters — will decide the outcome of the 2026 midterms. This week’s Fox News poll shows the GOP “only” leading by 10 among white working class voters, their weakest showing among this core demographic in two decades (since the Democratic blowout of 2006), a significant warning signal for Republicans.

SO WHAT: Economic populism appeals to working class voters, cultural progressivism does not. This is admittedly over-simplified, as “the working class” is not a monolith… e.g. white non-college voters are much more culturally-conservative, on average. But the broader trend is well-documented by liberal Ruy Teixeira & conservative Patrick Ruffini, among others). Watch for the both parties to seek the economic populist high ground in 2026 with proposals squarely aimed at the big, global & profitable.

VIDEO

I knew the late Hawaiian Senator Daniel Inouye was a war hero, but I never appreciated the extent of his Congressional Medal of Honor-winning bravery until recently. Dude was Hawaiian Rambo. Here’s a 90 second recounting of his WW2 exploits: