I have one complaint, mainly because it's something that really grinds my gears. Daniel Inouye was awarded the Medal of Honor. The *Congressional* Medal of Honor does not exist. Unfortunately, it has been in common usage for far too long. I've even seen the phrase on plaques outside of major military bases (where people should know better!).
I am surprised that you didn't fully realize the heroism of Sen. Inouye. Those of us who served on Senate staff knew it well and watched him as he quietly, effectively and honestly advocated for Hawaii and America. I was a senior Republican staffer and party made no difference. Sen. Inouye was a patriot and it was an honor to know him. Sadly, many folks who look like him and come from similar backgrounds are now the focus of government-created havoc. He would be ashamed and would have the courage to speak out.
Re: Chart #2. What you and Politano are missing in this analysis is that the constriction in employment can be caused not only by softening demand, but also by a shrinkage in labor supply. (These employment figures count only jobs filled, and ignore job openings.) Otherwise, how do you square your analysis with the Associated General Contractors of America "2025 Workforce Survey Analysis" which states: "...substantial shares of contractors are both seeking more workers and having difficulty filling those openings. 88 percent of firms that directly employ craft workers report having openings for craft workers, while four fifths of firms have openings for salaried workers. Furthermore, 83 percent of firms with craft worker openings report those positions are as hard or harder to fill than a year ago; similarly, 84 percent of firms with openings for salaried workers report they are as hard or harder to find than a year earlier." In short, the current administration's immigration policies--which are dramatically reducing sources of non-native born labor--may be a major factor in explaining this alleged "disappearing of jobs." It may not be just a disappearing of jobs, it can also be a disappearing of workers. https://www.agc.org/sites/default/files/users/user21902/2025%20Workforce%20Survey%20Analysis%20(3).pdf ~ Steven L. Dawson
This is incredibly insightful and helps illuminate why the GOP's turnout has been so bad in recent elections; blue-collar workers, their new base, aren't feeling any benefits of the economy, just as in Reagan's first mid-term in 1982, when his party lost about 33 seats amidst 10 percent unemployment. Whether you agree with Trump's economic strategy or not, even Reagan's took four years for it to genuinely kick in. Trump has greater headwinds, and it remains to be seen whether his tariff strategy will bring back the blue-collar jobs he's promising. It also doesn't help that the recent wave of immigration is driving down many entry-level blue-collar wages.
Good to see you finally focusing on why people are pissed. BTW, I think this also reflects how the middle class feels. At least those not blind. And even the wealthieat among us who have eyes, friends or a conscious know this too. Everyone I know is soft boycotting and terrified by this economy.
These trends reflect what economists now call the "K Economy" - it's where disposable income and standard of living keep climbing for the top "earners" while those in caught in the lower economic strata see inflation bringing down their quality of life. I'm glad you pointed out that non-college educated voters represent a larger share of ALL voters. We're talking about a significant % of our US population. The "individuality" zeitgeist of the '60's allowed us to break free of the constraints of forced conformity. Sadly however, from this emphasis on "do your own thing" - sprang the "Me" generation which quickly jumped to "Greed is Good" of the 1980s. The "All About Me / Greed is Good" was like lighter fluid to all the narcissists living among us. SOMEHOW we need to bring back the ethos that for ALL to rise, we must LIFT ALL BOATS. While it is early, your charts do not bode well for the current most dangerous Narcissist-In-Chief. The Blue Collar worker has every right to feel she/he has been sold down river by BOTH parties (we're looking at you Bill Clinton!) and decide to sit out the upcoming midterms.
I love these weekly Substacks. Very informative!
I have one complaint, mainly because it's something that really grinds my gears. Daniel Inouye was awarded the Medal of Honor. The *Congressional* Medal of Honor does not exist. Unfortunately, it has been in common usage for far too long. I've even seen the phrase on plaques outside of major military bases (where people should know better!).
Never knew that, Dave. Thanks!
I recently heard an expert say the U.S. is two economies … today’s newsletter illustrates that clearly.
I am surprised that you didn't fully realize the heroism of Sen. Inouye. Those of us who served on Senate staff knew it well and watched him as he quietly, effectively and honestly advocated for Hawaii and America. I was a senior Republican staffer and party made no difference. Sen. Inouye was a patriot and it was an honor to know him. Sadly, many folks who look like him and come from similar backgrounds are now the focus of government-created havoc. He would be ashamed and would have the courage to speak out.
Re: Chart #2. What you and Politano are missing in this analysis is that the constriction in employment can be caused not only by softening demand, but also by a shrinkage in labor supply. (These employment figures count only jobs filled, and ignore job openings.) Otherwise, how do you square your analysis with the Associated General Contractors of America "2025 Workforce Survey Analysis" which states: "...substantial shares of contractors are both seeking more workers and having difficulty filling those openings. 88 percent of firms that directly employ craft workers report having openings for craft workers, while four fifths of firms have openings for salaried workers. Furthermore, 83 percent of firms with craft worker openings report those positions are as hard or harder to fill than a year ago; similarly, 84 percent of firms with openings for salaried workers report they are as hard or harder to find than a year earlier." In short, the current administration's immigration policies--which are dramatically reducing sources of non-native born labor--may be a major factor in explaining this alleged "disappearing of jobs." It may not be just a disappearing of jobs, it can also be a disappearing of workers. https://www.agc.org/sites/default/files/users/user21902/2025%20Workforce%20Survey%20Analysis%20(3).pdf ~ Steven L. Dawson
This is incredibly insightful and helps illuminate why the GOP's turnout has been so bad in recent elections; blue-collar workers, their new base, aren't feeling any benefits of the economy, just as in Reagan's first mid-term in 1982, when his party lost about 33 seats amidst 10 percent unemployment. Whether you agree with Trump's economic strategy or not, even Reagan's took four years for it to genuinely kick in. Trump has greater headwinds, and it remains to be seen whether his tariff strategy will bring back the blue-collar jobs he's promising. It also doesn't help that the recent wave of immigration is driving down many entry-level blue-collar wages.
Good to see you finally focusing on why people are pissed. BTW, I think this also reflects how the middle class feels. At least those not blind. And even the wealthieat among us who have eyes, friends or a conscious know this too. Everyone I know is soft boycotting and terrified by this economy.
Dude was Hawaiian Rambo! Great kicker for the week. Dude was a Rambo for sure.
These trends reflect what economists now call the "K Economy" - it's where disposable income and standard of living keep climbing for the top "earners" while those in caught in the lower economic strata see inflation bringing down their quality of life. I'm glad you pointed out that non-college educated voters represent a larger share of ALL voters. We're talking about a significant % of our US population. The "individuality" zeitgeist of the '60's allowed us to break free of the constraints of forced conformity. Sadly however, from this emphasis on "do your own thing" - sprang the "Me" generation which quickly jumped to "Greed is Good" of the 1980s. The "All About Me / Greed is Good" was like lighter fluid to all the narcissists living among us. SOMEHOW we need to bring back the ethos that for ALL to rise, we must LIFT ALL BOATS. While it is early, your charts do not bode well for the current most dangerous Narcissist-In-Chief. The Blue Collar worker has every right to feel she/he has been sold down river by BOTH parties (we're looking at you Bill Clinton!) and decide to sit out the upcoming midterms.