Six-Chart Sunday – Why AI Regulations Are Likely

6 Infographics + 1 Video (We can't say we weren't warned)

While the White House walked-back NEC Director Kevin Hassett’s suggestion this week that future AI models “should go through a process so that they’re released in the wild after they’ve been proven safe, just like an FDA drug,” and talk of the U.S. & China “establishing official discussions on AI” at the upcoming Trump-Xi Beijing summit is just starting, it nevertheless seems likely that AI regulations are a question of when, not if. We take a look this week at the why, who & how of AI regulation.

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1. AI Is Increasingly Powerful & Ubiquitous

Historically, governments aim to mitigate technology risk by restricting power (if widely available) or restricting access (if dangerously powerful). AI models are widely available and increasingly powerful, inviting greater oversight & regulation.

2. Media Coverage & Extreme Anecdotes Drive Negative Perceptions

The U.S. public is more concerned than excited about AI (Pew), perhaps influenced by the wall-to-wall media coverage highlighting downside risks and existential threats, such as the Economist this week writing:

“AI may soon grant people extremely dangerous powers: to synthesise viruses, generate novel neurotoxins or assemble omnicidal ‘mirror life’. Such dangers are the dark side of AI’s wonderful promise to democratise intelligence. It is even conceivable that an AI could give a misanthropic loner the power to end humanity.” (The Economist)

It’s hardly alone…

3. Polling Reveals Interesting Contradictions

A March NBC poll found AI less popular than ICE, perhaps explaining why more Americans worry federal AI regulation won’t go far enough than worry it will go too far (MIT Technology Review). But government leaders are understandably cautious about undermining innovation or ceding leadership to other nations.

Meanwhile experts and the public see the future of AI very differently, according to a Pew survey.

“The biggest gap is around the future of work: While 73% of experts think that AI will have a positive impact on how people do their jobs, only 23% of the American public thinks so. Experts are also more optimistic than the public about AI’s impact on education and medical care, but they agree that AI will hurt elections and personal relationships.”

And AI concerns do not seem to undermine goodwill towards the tech sector. But interestingly, while voters have a +60 net favorable view of technology companies, their view of AI companies is -16 net unfavorable (Echelon Insights).

4. Uniquely-Wide Range of Policy Issues in Play

Artificial intelligence touches on commerce, consumer protection, national security, health care, intellectual property, workforce and more. Policymakers in all of these areas perceive reasons to investigate and possibly act (although this very breadth can make federal legislating harder since “jurisdiction over AI policy is fragmented across multiple committees in both the House and Senate.” (A16Z))

5. States Are Not Waiting for Congress

As with laws around internet privacy, social media restrictions and data breaches, U.S. states are not waiting for Congress to act. A record 1,561 AI-related bills have been introduced in U.S. states so far this year, creating an ever-expanding web of rules and requirements (multistate.ai)

6. Major Powers Bring Different Approaches

National governments are also considering AI oversight and regulation, but the past three decades of internet policy have shown profoundly different goals & approaches. The U.S. has prioritized innovation, the EU consumer protection, China governmental control. As a result, America has enjoyed the most tech entrepreneurship by a wide margin, but we lack many rules to protect children, contain misinformation or fight fraud.

SO WHAT:

It’s no surprise that the most impactful technology of this era is generating historic levels of interest, concern and engagement. But determining precisely how to oversee powerful emerging technologies — without stifling innovation, freezing-out competitors, surrendering American leadership or ignoring significant risks — is easier said than done. Expect significant policy momentum in Washington throughout 2026, with AI policy debates taking a central role in the work of the 120th Congress and 2028 Presidential election. Buckle up.

VIDEO

We were warned in 2019…

For that matter, we were warned in 1968!