Six-Chart Sunday – After Iran

6 Infographics + 1 Video (John Glenn)

There’s much we don’t know about the next few months. Is the war nearing an end or merely the end of the beginning? Will the Iranian regime fall or remain entrenched? Will the Hormuz Strait reopen? When? With or without threats & tolls? Will the U.S. put boots on the ground to “finish the job” or depart the region declaring “major military operations complete”? Is this Trump’s triumph or his Iraq? The honest answer… nobody knows what the next months hold.

As for the next several years, that’s a different matter. Six outcomes are already clear.

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1. The New World Order Emerges

Economically, the post-Cold War order began unraveling with the Global Financial Crisis. Geopolitically, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent, ongoing war marked an irreversible turning point. The third Gulf War accelerates the transition to a new, multi-polar order that is no longer rules-based or American-led. Regional & economic alliances will persist, but the world will be less anchored by a single hegemon, nations less aligned within legacy multilateral institutions (NATO, WTO, UN) and more focused on resilience and leverage.

2. The Quest for Energy & Resource Resilience Accelerates

The Iran War delivered the third warning this decade about the perils of global supply chain dependencies. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens today, it could close again tomorrow, and energy / fertilizer / resource flows through the Red Sea and from Russia are uncertain. Even if Presidents Trump & Xi cut a sweeping deal in Beijing next month, both nations remain unacceptably dependent on the other. The unmistakable lesson: if you import critical inputs, you’re at risk. Watch for nations to expand domestic capacities, deepen strategic reserves and develop alternative sources less imperiled by undependable geopolitics.

3. New Defense Imperative Expands

Drones are driving a revolution in military affairs; the calculus of war is changing. Offense is now dramatically cheaper than defense, creating cost and supply mismatches. Both military and civilian critical infrastructure — desalination plants, data centers, shipping, airports, pipelines — are at increasing risk, urgently demanding advanced countermeasures.

“The global drone defence systems market size was valued at US$72.70 billion in 2025 [and] projected to grow from $120.49 billion in 2026 to $6.860 trillion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 65.74% during the forecast period.”

We already see this impacting industrial markets, such as Volkswagen’s potential pivot from “Love Bugs” to “Missile Command.”

4. Global Inflationary Pressures Persist

The question isn’t whether prices for fuel, fertilizer, shipping & insurance will rise amidst the disruptions of the Iran War. It’s how much and for how long. The biggest oil supply disruption in history + massive spending needed for repairs & rearmament + greater government borrowing to replenish & expand strategic reserves + higher future risk premiums is not a deflationary recipe nor likely to prove transitory.

5. America’s Populist Isolationism Strengthens

For nearly two decades, opposition to foreign wars was the one issue uniting populists on the left and right. Bernie Sanders & Donald Trump both campaigned against the folly of American adventurism in the Middle East, urging fewer engagements abroad and more national-building at home. The Iran War — however & whenever it ends — will empower isolationist (and anti-Israel) voices on both left and right, heavily shaping the 2028 presidential primaries and general election.

6. Executive Power Constrained, Retrenches

The history of American government is a story of balancing powers among executive, legislative and judicial branches, with periods of expanding presidential power & overreach followed by eras of retrenchment driven by Congress, courts and/or voters. So far, the 21st century has seen steady expansion of executive power in response to crises — 9/11, GFC, COVID — with no presidency pushing the envelope more aggressively than Trump 2.0. Expect the pendulum to swing back, with the likeliest limitations coming on presidential war powers, tariff authorities & the power of the purse.

SO WHAT: However the Iran War ends, it has already changed the world. Every government now faces the same calculation: spend heavily on resilience — energy, infrastructure, defense industrial base — or accept dependence on rivals. Most will spend. Expect higher debt, harder borders, and a louder nationalism in every capital.

VIDEO

During the 1974 Ohio Senate campaign, incumbent Howard Metzenbaum had accused John Glenn of never having “held a job.” The war hero / test pilot / astronaut’s powerful response at the end of their May 4 debate at the Cleveland City Club remains one of the greatest debate knockout punches of all time.