Six-Chart Sunday – A Republic: Let's Keep It

6 Infographics + 1 Video (Admiral James Stavridis on Iran, drone wars & US leadership) + Upcoming live discussion (Sen. Lamar Alexander 7/1)

Heading into America’s 250^th anniversary week, I remain convinced the U.S. is both virtuous & exceptional. There’s no better place to live and no better time to be alive.

That’s not to say everything is perfect. Far from it. Many challenges persist and grow, nowhere more than in our politics, where a system designed in the 18^th century struggles to adapt to 21^st century realities.

Just as the Internet Age upended how we work, live, play & learn, the information revolution is similarly disrupting our governance, democracy & elections. AI will intensify the challenges. Thankfully the Founders designed a system capable of evolution, adaptation & reform, critical capabilities if we hope to thrive for the next 250 years. Consider these six questions:

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1. Do Competitive Seats Matter?

402 of 435 House seats are not competitive. While the nation is almost evenly divided, fewer than 10% of Congressional seats are close. Thanks to aggressive gerrymandering, geographic self-sorting and winner-take-all general elections, the winners of partisan primaries are all-but guaranteed to capture >90% of seats. What happens to a system designed for competition-driven-compromise when there’s so little competition?

2. Why Only Two Significant Parties?

The Constitution says nothing about political parties, which are neither required nor preordained. Yet the Republican & Democratic parties have dominated U.S. politics for most of the past two centuries. Registration data suggest voters are increasingly frustrated by the status quo but unable to change much given rules entrenching the duopoly (partisan primaries; winner-take-all districts). If 45% of voters don’t want to be Democrats or Republicans, should 99% of Representatives be Democrats & Republicans?

3. How Big Is Too Big for Congressional Districts?

At the Constitutional Convention, George Washington spoke only once — to urge that representation remain close to the people, with a ratio of one representative for every 30,000. For more than a century, Congress followed that blueprint, with the House growing steadily from 65 members in 1789 to 435 by 1913. And then it stopped. Today, the actual ratio is roughly one representative for every 760,000 Americans. Is there any population at which a House district becomes too big to represent?

4. Can America Plan Long-Term When the Rules Keep Changing?

Every two years the partisan alignment in Washington changes. Republicans cut Democratic projects when they’re in charge, while Democrats end GOP initiatives when they’re in control. Congress hasn’t funded the government on time since 1997, governing mostly by short-term stopgaps… Administrations operate via regulations and executive orders that get tossed by courts & successors. How can businesses (or federal agencies) plan & invest for the long-term when rules & incentives keep flip-flopping?

5. Who Dominates Campaign Finance?

Campaign cost are increasing much faster than inflation, with the richest Americans increasingly dominating election finance. Does this make our democracy more robust & resilient, or does it undermine trust, accelerate alienation & drive populism?

6. How Much Debt Is Too Much?

Congress has raised the debt ceiling roughly once a year this century, while debt tripled as a share of GDP (~35% to ~100%). We now spend more on interest than on defense and will for the foreseeable future. Government shutdowns don’t force balanced budgets, nor does the debt ceiling, and voters are more likely to punish politicians who cut spending or raise taxes. Is any amount of debt too much, and if so, are new mechanisms needed to force fiscal discipline?

SO WHAT

There’s a lot more right with America than wrong with America. But you can both love our country and acknowledge our shortcomings. The genius of our constitutional system is its capacity to reform, evolve and adapt, qualities we’ll need to navigate a disruptive 21st century. We’ve done it before. Here’s to the next 250.

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UPCOMING LIVE DISCUSSION July 1st at 4pm ET

Want to feel better about America & our future? Join us this Wednesday for a healthy helping of Lamar Alexander’s American optimism.

VIDEO

Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis is an American hero. The legendary sailor / leader / thinker / geopolitical columnist / novelist offered fascinating and uniquely-well-informed perspectives on the Iran conflict, 21st century warfare & American global leadership in this week’s discussion.