Six-Chart Sunday (#52) – Cold Wars in Cold Places
6 Infographics + 1 Video (geopolitical strategist Hal Brands on what the Eurasian Century means for the prospects of World War III)
President-elect Trump takes office in a far less peaceful world than when he first arrived in 2017. Hot wars persist in Europe & the Middle East, while the Western Pacific is a tinderbox. The new Administration also faces active Cold Wars in at least six Cold Places.
The Arctic. President Trump’s interest in buying Greenland goes well beyond a real estate developer’s keen eye for beachfront property. “The security environment in and around the Arctic is becoming increasingly militarised [by Russia & China] and dangerous,” with Greenland strategically-situated, rich in critical minerals but under-prepared for the challenges ahead.
Cyber. If you’ve only paid attention to the elections you may have missed China’s hack of the Treasury Department, FBI & de facto takeover of the telecom systems that police use for wiretapping bad guys (to which they had access for years). We do not yet understand the full-extent or persistence of this epic compromise. Departing FBI Director Wray warned: “The Chinese government is pre-positioning on American civilian critical infrastructure to lie in wait in those networks— to be in a position to wreak havoc and inflict real world harm at a time and place of their choosing.”
Space. “Once considered a largely peaceful domain, space is now viewed by many American lawmakers and military commanders as a place where the next major global conflict might unfold. If Moscow is working on a space nuke, it would be merely one of dozens of space weapons under development or already in use by Russia, China and the United States.” (NYT). Space militarization is accelerating fast.
Deep Underground / Mining. “China isn’t short of options when it comes to critical minerals that could be used as counters in a trade war with the US. Beijing’s ban covering sales to the US of gallium, germanium, antimony and super-hard materials, and tighter controls on graphite, are likely an opening salvo in export controls that could be extended to dozens of niche materials if trade frictions with Washington escalate.” (Bloomberg)
Undersea. Cables on the ocean floor — critical for the flow of data, power & functioning of the global Internet — increasingly face sabotage by nation states. Some Chinese companies recently patented technology to cut undersea cables. “We have taken for granted the significance of these cables and are only now waking up to their vulnerability. Protecting them is near impossible: There are too many, they are too scattered and they are too difficult to continuously surveil.” (Japan Times) Map of known undersea cables:
Currency Wars (Cold Cash?) Opponents of the U.S.-led world order resent America’s possession (and perceived weaponization) of the world’s reserve currency and aspire to de-dollarize trade. This will prove extremely difficult. But China is trying, starting at home. “In the first few months of 2010, settlements in local currency accounted for less than 1.0% of China’s cross-border payments, compared to approximately 83.0% in USD… by March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD.”
VIDEO
Historian & geopolitical analyst Hal Brands is out with his 11th book — the Eurasian Century — looking at “Hot Wars, Cold Wars & the Making of the Modern World.” This week we discussed current geopolitics and risks facing America.
Bruce,
Thank you for a great conversation with Hal.
Jack
At some point, we will have to treat cyberattacks and sabotage as the acts of war they are. Attacks on our health care systems, water, and electric infrastructure can result in the deaths of Americans. Is it time to apply the MAD doctrine to cyber-attacks? You attack our infrastructure, and we will attack yours? If not, these cyber-attacks become Trojan Horses, waiting for a moment of China's choosing to compromise our vital infrastructure, our financial networks, and government functions.