Six-Chart Sunday (#46) – What’s the Matter with California?

6 Infographics from the week + 1 Video (Maryland’s Larry Hogan)

It’s the great American paradox: how can the “golden state” that gave us Silicon Valley & Hollywood, Stanford & Yosemite National Park, Ronald Reagan & Steve Jobs… the state whose GDP would rank as the 5^th largest economy in the world all by itself… concurrently struggle so badly at so many things? Six examples:

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1. New Housing Availability & Affordability. Per an essential FT read: “Homes in Texan cities are cheap and their populations soaring because the state has made urban development easy. California, New York & London are overheating and squeezing out young families because their planning systems place artificial constraints on supply, making urban development extremely difficult.”

2. K-12 Education. While California public school teachers’ pay ranks 3^rd and per-pupil spending is 17^th, California comes in dead last in high school graduation rates. Only 30% of California’s 4^th graders & 23% of 8^th graders tested proficient in math (40^th & 37^th out of 51 respectively) (NAEP tests).

3. Infrastructure Construction: The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)’s X Post below explains efficiently what the Los Angeles Times more exhaustively explains here: “Despite some progress, the state’s high-speed rail is $100 billion short and many years from reality.” (3/21/24).

4. Housing the Homeless. California has the highest percentage of homeless people in the country, according to a 2023 federal report. In response, Gov. Gavin Newsom in March 2023 “promised 1,200 tiny homes to temporarily house homeless people, specifically those who already live in encampments… Yet a year after the governor’s announcement, the tiny homes have not housed a single resident, and only about 150 of them have even been purchased by the state and cities so far. Changing parameters from the state, along with other bureaucratic delays in deciding where to make tiny-home sites, are to blame for the standstill.” (Fortune). As for the cost per unit, Hoover Institution’s Professor Lee Ohanian finds it “insanely expensive” and offers these comparisons:

5. Protecting & Defending. Even though California spends more per capita on policing & corrections than any other state (but less than DC), it suffers the 6^th highest violent crime rate in the nation according to FBI data.

6. Attracting & Retaining Residents. “According to recent data from the Census Bureau, California is one of the fastest shrinking states in the U.S.” (Newsweek), with fewer people moving in & more decamping, especially since the pandemic. The Tax Foundation notes this fits the broader trend of higher-tax states losing residents to lower-tax jurisdictions.

Note on this week’s post: I love California! And I’m sad that the sum seems less than the many great parts. I initially went looking for why California takes so much longer to count votes than other states (I assumed they required an environmental impact statement for each vote but it’s this).

VIDEO

Larry Hogan was a very popular & highly successful two-term Republican Governor in deep blue state Maryland… proof that good leaders can bridge the partisan divide even in the 21st century. He would have been a great Senator. We chatted amidst the pandemic while he was still Governor.