Six-Chart Sunday (#27) - Everything Changed & Nothing Changed
6 Infographics from the week + 1 Video (the great Dana Perino explains why "Everything Will Be OK")
With 100 days until Election Day, the longest general election race in U.S. history just transformed into the shortest sprint. The wildest month in Presidential election history ended with Vice President Harris replacing President Biden as the Democratic nominee. Everything changed & nothing changed.
EVERYTHING CHANGED — Democrats Closed the Enthusiasm Chasm: The relief rally following Biden’s dropping out and Democrats’ immediate anointment of Harris closed the massive gap in partisans’ enthusiasm for their respective nominees, even as GOP enthusiasm about Trump grew after a successful convention and the July 13 assassination attempt. (Wall Street Journal polls)
*** The key question for maintaining enthusiasm parity will be who defines Harris over the next 30 days and how — is she Swift-Boated (“San Francisco Radical”) or Hope-and-Changed (“New, Normal, Positive”)? ***
NOTHING CHANGED — Trump Still Holds a Narrow Lead. On March 24, 2024, Trump held a 1.7 point lead over Biden. 125 days later — following months of campaigning, billions in online ads, the first Presidential shooting since 1981, the first presumptive nominee to dropout since 1968 and the most consequential Presidential debate ever — Trump holds a 1.7 point lead over Harris. (Real Clear Politics average of recent polls)
EVERYTHING CHANGED — Money, Media & Meme Momentum: Biden campaign fundraising dried up after the debate while Trump’s surged ahead… The Harris campaign reports an historic fundraising surge following her selection. Mainstream media flipped almost instantly from a Biden feeding frenzy to Harris love fest. And the most viral social media memes seemed to shift quickly from Biden’s Old / Vance is Cool to Harris is Cool / Vance is Weird.
NOTHING CHANGED — Swing States Before = Swing States After: While the Biden campaign started showing weakness in traditionally-Democratic states such as Virginia, Minnesota & Maine, Harris likely shores up states won by Democrats since 2012. The race is back to the same 6-7 swing states we’ve been watching all year.
Looking Ahead…
EVERYTHING MAY CHANGE: If 2024 has taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected. A lot could happen over the next 100 days to reset the race.
NOTHING MAY CHANGE — Another squeaker likely: Trump’s victory in the Electoral College was extremely close… change 79,316 votes out of 137.5M cast, and Hillary Clinton would have won. Biden’s 2020 victory was even narrower… change just 42,922 votes out of 154.6M cast, and the Electoral College would have tied (and Trump returned by the House). 2024 is once again shaping up for a high turnout, photo finish & partisan rejection.
VIDEO
The great Dana Perino — former White House Press Secretary, prolific author, sagacious political commentator, beloved co-host of The Five, model dog owner — shares great life lessons from her terrific book Everything Will Be OK.
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It does seem that Democratic Party enthusiasm had been drained by the revelation of the President's cognitive abilities. Changing to Harris restores the election to what it was before the debate.
Enough time for the ex-prez's foot-in-mouth-syndrome to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory,