Six-Chart Sunday (#26) – Gradually Then Suddenly
6 Infographics from the week + 1 Video (KKR’s Ken Mehlman on impact investing & life beyond politics)
After narrowly but consistently trailing the Trump campaign for most of 2024, the wheels came off the Biden wagon over three brutal weeks. President Biden’s biggest vulnerability – the perception of age-related infirmity – exploded following his confused debate performance June 27, and contrasted even more poorly with Donald Trump’s strong and defiant response to getting shot on July 13. Weak got weaker and strong got stronger, leading to a collapse in donor, voter & elected official support. This week’s charts tell the tale.
Moving forward, President Biden could refuse to step down, retain the nomination and count on Donald Trump’s persistent unpopularity to power a narrow win. Democrats remain totally united against Trump. But given Democratic leaders’ clear loss of confidence and growing efforts to force him off the ballot, it seems a matter of time before he steps aside. The pain is unavoidable, the suffering optional. Regardless, we can count on tightening, twists and turns in the 107 days remaining until Election Day.
The Decisive 21 Days. The Biden Campaign’s strategy to put concerns about his age and energy to rest by debating Trump early backfired colossally. Donald Trump’s incredible response to the July assassination attempt, by contrast, highlighted his own strength and toughness. The contrast may be unsustainable, with both moments memorialized by iconic images and video. Iconic images make… and break… campaigns, and these are some of the most powerful in modern American history.
Enthusiasm Chasm. Even before Trump’s extraordinary response to getting shot, polling consistently found his voters far more enthusiastic. This enthusiasm gap will only grow as Democrats increasingly call for Biden to step down while Republicans unified around a well-produced and high-energy convention.
S#*t Flows Down Ballot. Only 1 of the 69 Senate races held in the past two Presidential cycles saw voters split their tickets, choosing a President of one party and Senator from the other (Maine’s Susan Collins in 2020). If Biden remains atop the Democratic ticket and his polling does not improve, Democrats will need at least 8 split tickets in 2024 to retain a 51 seat majority, assuming they can hold Maryland against popular former Governor Hogan (and cannot pick off strong GOP incumbents in TX or FL, which would take even more split tickets).
Democratic Defection Trickle Growing, Stampede Possible. While elected Democrats remain 100% unified against former President Trump, concerns about Joe Biden’s ability to win are growing in number and volume. Democratic Leadership has so-far relied on private discussions and media leaks to nudge the President, a growing number of Members have gone on the record calling for Biden to step aside. The President has said he’d only listen to “the Lord Almighty,” but it’s increasingly clear she is telling him it’s time. Public defections are expected to grow as new polling becomes available this week. The Hill is tracking:
If Biden Steps Down, Who Steps Up? We have not seen a major party’s nominee drop out this late in an election cycle since LBJ in 1968 (when the Convention was also in Chicago). The two major questions are (a) will there be a public and democratic process / mini-primary, or will sitting Vice President assume the nomination by default, and (b) even in a contested race, can anyone out-maneuver the sitting VP (they could not in 1968)? Here’s our look at the candidates & considerations, and we’d note: these also apply to VP selections including Vance:
Expect Twists, Turns & Tightening. The 2024 election is hardly over. The race will tighten again. As NBC’s Steve Kornacki points out, even when 65% of voters expressed “major” concerns with Biden’s physical and mental health and only 33% of Democrats said they were satisfied with him as their nominee, he only trailed Trump by 2% in NBC’s July poll. A new Democratic nominee could expect renewed enthusiasm and party unity, perceptions of momentum thanks to tightening polls, a return to net media support for the Democrats and a renewed likelihood the election is a referendum on Trump, rather than Biden.
VIDEO
Ken Mehlman co-founded & co-leads PE giant KKR’s Impact Fund. He’s former Chairman of the RNC and the last person to manage a GOP Presidential campaign that won >50% of the popular vote.