Six-Chart Sunday (#21) – The State of Play on Fathers' Day

6 Infographics from the week + 1 video (Chris Cillizza with the perfect Fathers' Day gift)

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97 days until early voting starts. 143 days until Election Day. 205 days until the 119th Congress certifies the electoral college & the longest general election in U.S. history truly ends.

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1. The Economist’s 2024 Election Model out this week gives Trump ~2/3 likelihood of winning the electoral college. Their “model is updated every day & combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the probable electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election. The chance of a tie in the electoral college is less than 1 in 100.”

2. 538’s Presidential Election Model is much closer, with Trump winning in 508 of 1,000 simulations, Biden winning 489 & 3 ties. Four days ago this same model gave Biden a 53-in-100 chance of winning vs 47/100 for Trump, proving the old Roman adage, “Nemo scit stercore.”

3. Candidate Qualities: While Pew reports Trump & Biden are the “least-liked pair of major party candidates in at least 3 decades,” voters see differences. A new CBS poll found “Trump outpaces Mr. Biden on a range of qualities like being seen as effective, tough, energetic & competent. Also, more think Trump has a vision of where he wants to lead the country. Mr. Biden does better on personal likability & being viewed as compassionate.”

4. Polling Averages Show Small But Durable Trump Lead in Swing States: While Trump leads by 0.8%-1.1% in national polls (per RCP & 538, respectively), the six states Cook Political Report rates as “toss ups” show consistent Trump leads in both the Sun Belt & Great Lake Swings. If Biden can regain & hold the PA-MI-WI “Blue Wall” he’ll win with exactly 270 EVs.

5. Does Congress Deserve a Pay Raise? While just 13% of voters approve of the job Congress is doing, primary elections suggest higher support (or a broken system), with 225 out of 226 incumbents winning their primaries or running unopposed so far in 2024. So does Congress deserve its first pay raise / cost-of-living adjustment in 15 years, as some are urging?

   PRO:

   1. Lawmakers now earn less than other professionals such as lawyers, making it harder to attract & retain diverse & talented leaders into these important jobs (see also teachers, cops, soldiers, nurses). Rank-and-file Members even earn less than ~10% of their own staffers: 228 aides made over $200,000 in 2023, with another 555 earning $180,000 - $200,000.

   2. Inflation has eroded Members’ purchasing power. $1 from 2009 is only worth 68 cents today. Members should be earning $243,300 under existing law.

   3. Higher salaries might discourage end-runs around the salary freeze, such as the no-receipt-required reimbursement system created last year which 300 House members used to rack up $5.8M in charges in its first year.

   CON:

   1. The rank-and-file House lawmaker salary of $174,000 is triple the $59,384 average pay for US workers in 2023.

   2. Salary increases are a tough look when Congress has ballooned the national debt above $34.8 trillion & CBO forecasts $1-2 trillion annual deficits as far as they can see.

   3. Congressional pay in 2023 was up 268% over 2009 if measured by number of public laws enacted.

      

6. Since It’s Father’s Day: No Presidential Election since 1904 has featured a childless major party candidate. 2024 features the second-most fruitful fathers since 1884. The record — 16 children — saw William Henry Harrison (10 kids) & Martin Van Buren (6) square off in 1836 & again in 1840. President John Tyler holds the record for most children by a sitting President with 15, though he was called “His Accidency” for other reasons. Happy Fathers’ Day to all the Dads!

VIDEO

Speaking of Fathers’ Day… Journalist-author-political analyst-sports nut Chris Cillizza wrote the perfect Fathers’ Day gift book — “Power Players: Sports, Politics & the American Presidency” — just in case you’re a last-minute shopper!

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