Referend-Him! The "Not It" Election
Our new Q2 slide deck looks at the state of the race & the policy implications of Trump 2.0 vs Biden 2.0
I initially launched this Substack to distribute our Firm’s quarterly analyses of trends in politics & policy (~30 slides rather than the Sunday 6). Our latest is just out today — here! Please share this email with any/all friends or colleagues interested!
If the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is a referendum on Joe Biden, he’ll lose. If it’s a referendum on Donald Trump, he’ll lose. Both need to make the race all about the other guy. When voters ask whom to blame for their discontent, the campaigns will reply “Not It.”
Part 1 of this report examines the state of the races for the House, Senate & White House. In the Presidential, the mood, map and much polling currently favor the challenger. Yet both campaigns have major weaknesses, with many potential game-changing moments ahead. The race will be close and may end up the most heavily-litigated contest in American history.
Part 2 contrasts Biden 2.0 with Trump 2.0. While some policies will remain consistent — e.g. industrial policies to restore American manufacturing and confront China — expect major differences. Trump 2.0 could prove as disruptive to the status quo as the original if not more, for better or worse. Meanwhile the 119th Congress faces a huge agenda in 2025-26, starting with certifying the results of November’s election, while global tensions rise.
Full report HERE. To receive future reports (and “Six-Charts Sunday), subscribe here (it’s free):
Bruce, I'd love to get your thoughts on the book "The End of the World is Just the Beginning," by Peter Zeihan. While I think Zeihan misses some of his conclusions by virtue of extrapolative analysis that don't account for innovation (impacts of AI on population aging causing labor shortages, etc.), a good percentage of his conclusions seem to give depth and context to your analysis here.